ASX energy and gold stocks could gain if CPI stays hot
This Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases the March monthly CPI, and we believe it could be the most important data point of 2026 so far. The reason is simple. The RBA has already hiked rates twice this year, taking the cash rate to 4.10%, and another hike in May is now firmly on the table. If Wednesday’s number comes in hot, that hike becomes very likely. For ASX investors, the question is not whether to react, but how to position before the print. Two sectors stand out as clear winners if inflation stays sticky.
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Why This CPI Print Could Be the Hottest of 2026
The last CPI reading came in at 3.7%, still well above the RBA’s 2 to 3% target band. But that print missed the full impact of the Iran war on Australian fuel prices, which jumped to A$2.40 a litre by early April. With Qatar’s LNG output hit by a 17% capacity loss and the Strait of Hormuz mostly closed during the quarter, the cost shock from oil is now flowing into petrol, freight, and food bills across the country. We believe the market is underestimating how hot this number could run. Consumer inflation expectations have already jumped to 5.9%, the highest since late 2022. If Wednesday’s print confirms what households are already feeling, the RBA’s hand will be forced.
ASX Energy Producers Are the Clearest Winners
Woodside Energy (ASX:WDS) and Santos (ASX:STO) have rallied since the war began in late February, and we believe there is more to come. With Qatar facing a 17% hit to its LNG export capacity that could take three to five years to repair, and Brent crude sitting above US$105 a barrel, Australian gas producers are in the sweet spot of a global supply gap. These are not just oil-price plays. They are inflation hedges with real cash flows. When higher fuel and gas prices push CPI higher, the same forces are pumping cash into Woodside and Santos. A hot CPI print on Wednesday would simply confirm a thesis that is already in motion.
ASX Gold Miners Look Attractive After the Sell-Off
Gold has had a rough few weeks, with the price pulling back from its March peak as US Fed rate-cut hopes faded. ASX names like Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) and Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) have been hit hard, with Northern Star down roughly 30% from its March highs after a mix of operational guidance cuts at its KCGM and Jundee operations and fading rate-cut hopes. In our view, this looks more like an opportunity than a reason to worry. If Wednesday’s CPI runs hot, gold tends to stay bid as a hedge against sticky inflation. The fundamentals also remain solid. Northern Star delivered strong free cash flow last quarter and just kicked off a major share buyback, so the long-term story has not changed.
The Investor’s Takeaway
In our view, waiting until after the print is the wrong call. If the number comes in hot, both sectors are likely to jump quickly, leaving late buyers chasing the move. For growth-focused investors, ASX energy producers offer the strongest near-term story. For more defensive portfolios, gold miners at today’s levels look like a sensible inflation hedge. The risk is straightforward. A soft CPI surprise could see both sectors give back some recent gains. But with inflation expectations at multi-year highs and energy supply still tight, we believe the odds favour acting before Wednesday, not after.
