Oil at US$110 and Hundreds of Petrol Stations Running Dry: Which ASX Transport Stocks Can Survive Australia’s Fuel Crisis?

Over 500 petrol stations across Australia have run out of at least one type of fuel, with Energy Minister Chris Bowen confirming the shortages are concentrated in New South Wales and Victoria. AdBlue supplies are tightening too, threatening to force modern diesel trucks off the road entirely if urea imports do not arrive in time. Brent crude is trading around US$110 per barrel following disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, while diesel at the pump has climbed past A$2.60 per litre, even after the federal government halved the fuel excise from 52.6 cents to 26.3 cents per litre on April 1. For ASX transport and logistics investors, this is a direct margin hit. The question is not whether fuel costs are rising. It is the companies that built their contracts to pass those costs on and are absorbing every dollar themselves.

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The Casualties: Road-Heavy Names With No Pass-Through Protection

Lindsay Australia (ASX: LAU) is our most exposed pick in the sector. The company’s entire model runs on refrigerated and general freight for agricultural customers, many of whom operate on near-fixed supply agreements. Lindsay does have some fuel recovery mechanisms in its transport contracts, but these typically lag actual price moves, leaving a gap between when costs rise and when they can be recovered. With fuel one of the company’s largest cost lines and agricultural customers already feeling the pinch, there is very limited room to push surcharges through quickly. We believe LAU is the most vulnerable name in this environment.

Cleanaway (ASX: CWY) runs one of Australia’s largest diesel-dependent vehicle fleets for waste collection. Fuel surcharge mechanisms exist across its municipal and commercial contracts, but these adjust on a quarterly basis rather than in real time. That lag means every sharp diesel price spike damages margins before any recovery kicks in. Near-term earnings pressure looks unavoidable if oil stays above US$100 through the June quarter.

Qube Holdings (ASX: QUB) is better cushioned than LAU and CWY thanks to its diversified mix of port and logistics operations, but it is not immune. Its port logistics arm carries real fuel exposure, and if elevated oil prices persist into the third quarter, we would not be surprised to see guidance trimmed at its next update. Watch Qube’s Q3 trading commentary closely for the first hard evidence of margin damage.

The Survivors: Rail, Tolls and Contractual Protection

Aurizon (ASX: AZJ) is, in our view, the structural winner in this environment. Rail moves freight at a fraction of the diesel consumption per tonne compared to road transport. More importantly, Aurizon’s bulk freight contracts operate under a regulatory framework that already builds in explicit fuel cost pass-through. When diesel prices spike, the mechanism to recover those costs is already written into the agreement. The company currently offers a dividend yield of around 5.9%, mostly franked, which gives investors income while they wait for the sector to settle. This is the one ASX transport stock we believe investors should be considering adding to right now.

Atlas Arteria (ASX: ALX) collects tolls on its French motorway network. It does not burn diesel to generate revenue. Traffic volumes have shown minimal sensitivity to oil prices at current levels, which means the direct earnings impact from this crisis is close to zero. For investors seeking a genuine defensive play inside the transport and infrastructure space, ALX is exactly that.

The Investor’s Takeaway

Three things matter most from here. First, the EIA expects Brent crude to ease below US$80 per barrel in the second half of 2026 as Middle East tensions ease and US production climbs. This is a trading position in road logistics, not a permanent structural change to the sector.

Second, the underappreciated risk is AdBlue. If urea shortages force any meaningful reduction in trucking capacity, Aurizon picks up mode-switching freight before oil prices even begin to normalise. That near-term tailwind is not yet fully priced in by the market.

Third, watch the Q3 guidance updates from Qube and Cleanaway. These will be the first concrete numbers showing how deeply rising fuel has cut into margins, and they will shape how investors price the sector for the rest of FY26.

Our verdict: consider trimming road-heavy logistics exposure now, and hold or add Aurizon for income, rail efficiency, and structural protection in a fuel crunch that has further to run.