- ASX: NHC
New Hope Corporation
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About New Hope Corporation
New Hope Corporation History
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New Hope Corporation's Future Outlook
New Hope’s outlook is defined by a clear and credible production growth trajectory anchored by the ramp-up of New Acland Stage 3 – the largest organic growth project in the company’s history. FY26 production guidance of 10.2–11.5 million saleable tonnes reflects the ongoing ramp-up at New Acland and a recovery at Bengalla from weather-related disruptions in FY25. Bengalla is expected to return to its normal 13.4 million tonne per annum ROM coal production rate in H2 FY26. The Q2 FY26 quarterly showed group coal sales up 8.2% quarter-on-quarter to 2.9 million tonnes, an average realised price of A$139 per tonne, first-half underlying EBITDA of A$214.8 million, and available cash of A$616.8 million. New Acland Stage 3 is targeting approximately 5 million tonnes per annum via the Manning Vale West mining area. Combined with stable Bengalla output, analysts forecast total group production reaching approximately 13 million tonnes annually by FY28 – a 24% uplift from current levels with no new acquisitions required.
Is New Hope (ASX: NHC) a Good Stock to Buy?
New Hope is one of the most financially robust coal producers on the ASX – but at current prices, the valuation debate is legitimate and investors should enter with clear eyes. The fundamental case is strong. FY25 delivered group saleable production of 10.7 million tonnes (up 18.1% year-on-year) alongside revenue of A$1.80 billion, net profit of A$439 million, and operating cash flows of A$571 million. The board declared total FY25 dividends of A$0.34 per share, fully franked, with a forward yield of approximately 6.7% and available cash of A$616.8 million. The complication is valuation. The share price has surged approximately 33% over the past 12 months to around A$5.35, trading 27% above its 200-day moving average and well ahead of analyst consensus price targets of around A$4.27. At a trailing P/E of approximately 18 times, NHC is no longer the deep value proposition it once was. For investors seeking a high-quality, fully franked yield from a low-cost producer with a genuine production growth catalyst, New Hope remains one of the better-run names in the sector. The key question is whether the current price leaves enough margin of safety to justify fresh capital today.
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