Tungsten has quietly become one of the most strategically significant metals in the world. China controls roughly 80% of global supply, yet Beijing has spent the past 18 months systematically restricting exports, and the consequences for Western industrial and defence supply chains are now acute.
Prices are at all-time highs, the supply-demand deficit is structural rather than cyclical, and a small cohort of ASX-listed companies is positioning to fill the gap. In our view, the tungsten sector warrants serious investor attention.
What Is Tungsten, and Why Does It Matter?
Tungsten holds a distinction no other metal can claim: the highest melting point of any element at approximately 3,414°C. That single property underpins almost everything interesting about it commercially.
Blended into tungsten carbide, the metal becomes harder than most steels, making it indispensable for cutting tools and drill bits used across manufacturing, mining, and oil and gas. These cemented carbide applications account for roughly 50% of all tungsten demand globally. From there, the use-case list expands considerably: high-speed tool steels, aerospace turbine components, X-ray tube targets, electrical contacts, and radiation shielding all rely on the metal’s extreme thermal and mechanical stability.
The defence sector is particularly dependent. Tungsten’s density (roughly 1.7 times that of lead) makes it the material of choice for armour-piercing ammunition, missile components, and tank armour. The US Department of Defence has formally classified tungsten as a critical defence material and moved to phase out all procurement from Chinese and Russian sources by 2027. Europe has followed with its own supply-chain diversification programs. These are not aspirational policy statements; they are binding procurement shifts with real consequences for which producers receive offtake business.
More recently, two additional demand vectors have strengthened the structural case. Photovoltaic solar manufacturing now uses ultra-fine tungsten wire to slice silicon wafers, and penetration in this application has surpassed 60% of global PV production, adding over 4,500 tonnes of annual incremental demand. Simultaneously, several governments are moving to establish strategic tungsten reserves, a trend that further tightens spot availability.
The challenge is supply. Beyond China, no single jurisdiction dominates. Historical operations in Portugal, Spain, and Australia produce meaningful volumes but at a fraction of Chinese scale. Encouragingly, that constraint is also the investment thesis: Western demand for non-Chinese tungsten is deepening, and the project pipeline is thin.
The Tungsten Market: Where It Is And Where It Is Headed
The repricing of tungsten over the past 15 months has been extraordinary. Ammonium paratungstate (APT), the industry benchmark product, traded around US$312 per metric tonne unit (MTU) in 2023 and recovered to approximately US$415/mtu by early 2025. What followed was a step change, not just a mere continuation of the recovery.
China implemented a strict export licensing regime for tungsten products in February 2025, with further controls on high-purity tungsten powder added in January 2026 as part of Beijing’s dual-use export framework. The effect was not theoretical. According to Fastmarkets, APT CIF Rotterdam/Baltimore prices rose from US$900-940/mtu in January 2026 to US$1,650-1,900/mtu by mid-February – a near-doubling in six weeks! Concentrate prices have risen even more sharply, now trading at approximately US$22,000-24,000 per MTU, while US spot tungsten prices reached approximately US$111,500/MT in Q1 2026.
The structural drivers behind these moves are not easily reversed. China’s 2025 mining quotas were cut by 6.5% year-on-year, domestic ore grades are declining, and mining costs have breached 100,000 yuan per tonne. On the demand side, global new capacity additions in 2026 are expected to total less than 5,000 tonnes, a figure insufficient to materially alter the deficit. CICC has forecast that the global supply-demand gap will represent more than 17% of total demand from 2026 through 2028. That framing supports the characterisation now widely used by market participants: tungsten has entered a “rising-easily, falling-hardly” price regime.
Analysts at IMARC project the global tungsten market will reach approximately US$7.6bn in value by end of 2026, rising toward US$9.65bn by 2032 at a CAGR of 8.14%. A secondary price rally in the second half of 2026 is considered plausible if automotive demand aligns with further quota tightening. The principal downside risk is a strong US dollar reducing the purchasing power of international buyers, though this is unlikely to meaningfully offset the supply shortfall.
3 ASX Tungsten Stocks Worth Watching
EQ Resources (ASX: EQR)
EQR is the most operationally mature tungsten producer on the ASX, with two producing mines. The first of these is Mt Carbine in Far North Queensland and the second is Barruecopardo in the Salamanca province of Spain, described as Europe’s largest tungsten operation. The company is benefitting directly from the price surge; in Q4 2025, EQR lifted production 33% quarter-on-quarter to 38,292 MTU of tungsten, with the Fastmarkets APT low-price at US$900/mtu on the first day of 2026 – a price that has since more than doubled.
In March 2026, EQR gained initial access to a higher-grade in-situ orebody at Mt Carbine, supporting a step-up in production through April and into the remainder of the year. The company has simultaneously commenced a four-month, 28-hole drilling campaign totalling 7,700m to convert resource to reserve and underpin a resource and reserve update expected in late 2026.
Currently only 23% of the Mt Carbine resource has been converted to reserve, which suggests material upside from the drilling program. EQR’s share price has appreciated materially, nearly quadrupling in the first four months of CY26, reflecting how quickly the market has begun to price in the commodity tailwind.
Tungsten Mining NL (ASX: TGN)
TGN offers a different risk-reward profile: a developer with a globally significant resource base but no current production. Its flagship Mt Mulgine project in Western Australia hosts a JORC-compliant Mineral Resource of 175Mt, supporting what the company describes as one of the largest tungsten deposits outside of China.
TGN released the results of its Mt Mulgine Scoping Study in November 2025, demonstrating pre-tax NPV of A$1-1.4bn and IRR of 30-45% under the preferred 6Mtpa development scenario, modelled at a conservative tungsten price assumption of US$425/mtu, a level well below the current spot price. A 15Mtpa expansion scenario carries NPV of A$1.7-2.3bn. A notable feature of TGN’s strategy is the decision to sequence near-surface oxide gold extraction ahead of full-scale tungsten production, with the aim of generating early cash flow to offset pre-stripping costs and reduce capital risk.
A PFS is targeted for completion in the current quarter, with DFS to follow in the second half of 2027 and first tungsten production targeted by Q3 of 2029, subject to positive study outcomes. The company has also received a A$1m Federal Critical Minerals Development Program grant, and is actively exploring strategic partnerships and a potential NASDAQ listing to access international capital. TGN’s project economics, modelled conservatively, look compelling at today’s prices, although investors should recognise the development timeline and funding requirements that lie ahead.
Almonty Industries (ASX:AII)
Almonty is the ASX-listed company with arguably the most near-term production leverage. The company operates the Panasqueira mine in Portugal – one of the oldest and most continuously-operated tungsten mines in the world; and has recently completed the Sangdong mine in South Korea, a development it describes as a defining milestone.
Phase 1 at Sangdong is in production, while Phase 2 is targeting output of more than 460,000 MTU per year, which would represent approximately 7% of global supply. AII is also planning the US launch of its Gentung Browns Lake project in the second half of 2026, representing the first commercial tungsten mine in the United States in decades.
Conclusion
Tungsten’s transition from a niche industrial input to a geopolitically contested critical mineral has occurred faster than most analysts anticipated. The combination of Chinese supply restriction, deepening defence and clean energy demand, and an historically thin project pipeline outside China has produced a structural price uplift that looks durable. The ASX provides access to this theme through two distinct entry points: EQR for investors seeking operational leverage to current prices, and TGN and AII for those willing to accept development-stage risk in exchange for greater torque to the long-term thesis. In our assessment, the sector merits a place in any critical minerals-focused portfolio.
