Why Micron Stock Is Surging: Sold-Out AI Memory and a $1,750 Price Target War

Micron (NASDAQ:MU) jumped about 11% on Monday to close near US$1,089, a record high. The stock is now up more than 700% over the past year and is worth more than a trillion dollars. Here is the strange part. It keeps climbing even as some experts warn it has gone too far, too fast. That argument between the optimists and the doubters is what this story is really about.

Why Micron Is Soaring

For most of its life, Micron was a quiet, ordinary business. It made memory chips; the prices rose and fell with supply and demand, and investors never got too excited about it.

AI changed everything. Modern AI computers, like the ones built around Nvidia’s chips, need a special, faster type of memory called HBM. It is far more profitable than normal memory. And only three companies in the world can make it in large amounts: Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung.

Here is the key: Micron has already sold every HBM chip it can make in 2026. All of it is locked into contracts. That means Micron knows roughly how much money is coming in, and it can charge strong prices. The results show it. One part of the business nearly doubled its sales last quarter, and the company expects to keep about 81 cents of profit on every dollar of sales this quarter. For a company that used to earn thin margins, that is a massive jump.

Why Experts Cannot Agree

This is where investors split into two camps.

The optimists think AI has changed Micron forever. They believe the long-term contracts make their profits steady and reliable, so the stock deserves a much higher price. The most bullish targets on Wall Street sit at US$1,625 and US$1,750.

The doubters are just as confident the other way. They point out that the memory business has always gone in cycles: big booms followed by painful busts. When supply finally catches up with demand, prices drop, and profits fall hard. One analyst has a “sell” rating with a target near US$477, which would be more than half below Monday’s price. To this camp, today’s high price is built on profits that will not last.

So both sides are really arguing about one simple question: will the memory boom keep going, or will it crash like it always has before?

The June 24 Test

We get a big clue on June 24, when Micron reports its latest results. Experts expect sales somewhere between US$33.7 billion and US$40.9 billion. That huge gap shows just how unsure everyone is.

If the company posts strong numbers and confirms prices are holding, the record high will look justified. If there is any sign that prices are slipping, the doubters will feel proven right, and the stock could pull back.

For now, the sensible approach is to be careful about chasing a stock that has already climbed so far so fast. The story behind Micron is real, but a lot of good news is already built into the price.

And for Australian investors who cannot easily buy Micron, a simpler option is to get exposure to the wider AI and data-centre trend through local tech and infrastructure stocks, rather than trying to time one red-hot US stock at its peak.