AMP (ASX:AMP) tips 1H 26 NPAT of A$180m as China partnerships jump 24%

A one-off carried interest cheque flatters the print, but the China earnings stream is doing the real work

AMP Limited (ASX:AMP) has told the market to expect underlying NPAT of A$170m to A$180m for the first half of 2026, ahead of the formal result due on 6 August. It is a positive guidance update, but the composition of the number is more interesting than the headline.

The biggest single driver is the China partnerships line, which contributed roughly A$56m post-tax, up 24% on the second half of 2025. That is a meaningful step-up from an equity-accounted earnings stream that many investors still treat as a rounding item on AMP’s story rather than a core engine.

Layered on top is a A$13m carried interest gain from the DigitalBridge legacy fund sale, an A$5m tailwind from higher interest rates on group cash, and A$5m from the North platform guarantee. Working the other way is an A$12m negative revaluation on sponsor investments sitting inside Other Partnerships.

Strip the noise and this is a print with one very high-quality earnings surprise, one very low-quality one, and a valuation debate that just got a little more complicated.

The China partnerships line is quietly becoming the story

AMP’s China Life Pension Company and AMP Capital China joint venture stakes have historically been treated as legacy assets with unpredictable earnings. A 24% half-on-half lift changes that framing.

At roughly A$56m post-tax for a single half, this stream is now annualising toward A$110m. For a business whose total underlying NPAT is guided at A$170m to A$180m for the half, China is doing an outsized share of the heavy lifting.

We think the market has been slow to re-rate this earnings line because of geopolitical discount and the equity-accounted nature of the contribution. If the second-half number holds, that discount gets harder to defend.

The carried interest cheque is nice, but it is not repeatable

The A$13m post-tax carried interest from the DigitalBridge transaction is real cash, and DigitalBridge paying early rather than waiting for the sale of the remaining 49% is a genuine positive on timing. But investors should be careful how they capitalise it.

This is a legacy tail from the AMP Capital International Infrastructure Equity business AMP already sold. There is potentially more to come from the remaining 49% stake, with AMP flagging a total possible outcome within 30% either side of the previously disclosed A$57m figure. That optionality has value, but it is a one-off runway, not a recurring line.

Our concern is that consensus models could accidentally treat the A$13m as base earnings. Strip it out and the underlying half looks closer to A$160m, which is still solid but a less exciting number to talk about at the August result.

What the guidance says about the FY 26 setup

AMP is guiding to a first-half number that, doubled and adjusted for the one-off carry, points to a full-year underlying NPAT somewhere in the A$320m to A$340m zone. That is a respectable outcome for a business the market has spent the better part of a decade writing off.

The North platform is contributing steadily, group investment income is benefiting from where the RBA cash rate sits today, and the sponsor investment writedown is small enough not to derail the print. Management will provide fresh FY 26 guidance on 6 August, and that is where the real signal sits.

The share price reaction from here will hinge less on the 1H headline and more on whether the China contribution is treated as a run-rate or a spike.

The Investors Takeaway for AMP Limited

The 1H 26 upgrade is genuinely constructive, but the quality of the beat matters more than the size of it. If the China partnerships hold near A$56m per half, AMP’s earnings base has quietly reset higher and the stock deserves a fresh look. If the second half fades back toward the 2H 25 level, then a chunk of the enthusiasm was borrowed against a one-off carry.

We would want to see the 6 August result confirm two things. First, that management is guiding to sustained China contribution rather than treating 1H 26 as exceptional. Second, that the North platform and advice businesses continue to grow underlying revenue rather than leaning on the guarantee. Investors can find more coverage of ASX financials on stocksdownunder.