Cobalt Blue Holdings Ltd

Cobalt Blue is a high-risk, high-optionality play for investors with conviction in the cobalt market and patience for a development timeline that has repeatedly slipped. The honest assessment is that the company has been building toward a Final Investment Decision for several years, and has not yet crossed the line. It remains pre-revenue, carries accumulated operating losses, and is dependent on continued equity issuances to fund overheads, it closed its December 2025 quarter with an oversubscribed A$5.3 million placement, a sign of continued investor support but also of ongoing cash consumption. Against that, the bull case is genuinely compelling. Cobalt Blue would operate Australia’s first and only dedicated cobalt refinery, supplying a market that is structurally undersupplied outside the DRC and China. Its Glencore feedstock deal derisk the supply side materially. The Iwatani partnership provides a credible Japanese industrial anchor. The upgraded NPV of A$155 million compares favourably to a current market capitalisation of approximately A$85–100 million, implying the market is still sceptical about execution. The cobalt price recovery is real but fragile – any reversal tied to DRC supply returning at scale would weigh heavily on project economics. Cobalt Blue suits only speculative investors comfortable with pre-FID binary risk, but for those who believe the energy transition narrative and the West’s push to build cobalt supply chains outside China, it remains one of the most credible plays on the ASX.