The Market Prices a Pause, Not Peace Oil markets had a dramatic session on Monday, with Brent falling below US$100 per barrel and WTI dropping to US$88, both down roughly 10% after Trump posted that he was postponing threatened strikes against Iran. For many investors, that probably comes as no surprise. In reality, bombing more energy…

The 1970s Aren’t a Forecast, They’re a Warning The 1970s is a useful reference point because it remains the clearest modern example of stagflation, where inflation rises as economic growth slows. For that to happen, a number of forces usually need to hit at once, pushing inflation higher while also dragging on GDP growth. That said,…

This Isn’t Just Geopolitics Anymore, It’s Now a Macro Selloff The ASX 200 has now officially entered correction territory. What stood out just as much was the move in bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 13 basis points in a single session, which is a large one-day move. That is not a gradual repricing. It suggests…

If Oil Hits US$200, This Isn’t a Normal Selloff There is a scenario where oil could spike to US$200 a barrel if the market starts to believe the Middle East disruption will last for months rather than weeks. Fuel prices are not driven only by current supply loss, but by future expectations. Once market sentiment…