oOh!media (ASX:OML) Jumps 7% as I Squared Tops PEP With A$770m Bid, Board Says Still Not Enough

oOh!media Jumps as A$770m Bid War Heats Up

oOh!media (ASX:OML) jumped around 7% on Monday after I Squared Capital lobbed a fresh takeover offer at A$1.45 per share. That values the outdoor advertising group at roughly A$770 million and tops the A$1.40 per share offer from Pacific Equity Partners (PEP) made on 29 April. The board has turned down both. First offers from private equity are almost never the final number, and that pattern is playing out here. The board has also confirmed it is engaging with other interested parties, which means a third bidder could already be circling. The real question is whether one of those new entrants ends up walking away with the prize.

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Why the Board’s Rejection Is the Real Signal

The board did not just say no. It said no unanimously, and that tells you directors think the business is worth more than A$1.45. At the same time, both PEP and I Squared are being given limited access to the books under confidentiality. This keeps bidders interested and pushes them to come back higher, without committing oOh!media to anything yet.

Pausing the on-market share buyback adds to the picture. The buyback was supporting the share price in the open market. Removing that floor forces any future bidder to put up a higher headline price to win shareholder support. In our view, this is a board running a quiet auction. The stock hit a high of A$1.83 within the last 12 months, and directors are likely using those peak levels as their reference for fair value.

One detail to note: both bids reduce the final offer price by any dividends paid before completion. If oOh!media pays a dividend during the process, the A$1.45 headline comes down by that amount.

Why oOh!media Attracts Infrastructure-Style Money

The interesting twist is who is bidding. I Squared Capital is a New York-based infrastructure investor, not a traditional buyout firm. That changes how you think about the asset. oOh!media’s billboards, retail screens, airport panels and transit sites look less like a media business and more like infrastructure, with long leases, steady cash flow and prices that tend to rise with inflation.

It also helps that new CEO James Taylor, who took over from Cathy O’Connor in December, has only just begun rolling out his strategy to make oOh!media a more responsive, digitally focused operator. For context, 2025 revenue rose 8.8% to A$691.4 million. The board likely feels private equity is trying to buy the business before Taylor’s plan shows up in earnings. That is why we think the eventual sale price lands closer to A$1.60 to A$1.70 than today’s A$1.45.

The Investor’s Takeaway for oOh!media

We see three scenarios. In the bull case, a third bidder shows up, or the existing two raise their offers, pushing the stock towards A$1.60 or higher. In the base case, a revised offer between A$1.50 and A$1.55 wins the board’s tick. In the bear case, due diligence disappoints, bidders walk, and the stock drifts back towards A$1.10 to A$1.20.

With the board talking to multiple parties and the buyback paused, the odds favour holding through this process. Existing shareholders should sit tight. For new money, the easy upside has already gone, so the risk-reward is less generous than it was at A$1.00. The next catalyst is revised binding offers from PEP and I Squared.