Superloop (ASX:SLC) lifts FY26 EBITDA guidance and sets 3 major targets for FY29!

SuperCharge29 puts Smart Communities and accretive M&A at the centre of the next earnings step-up

Superloop (ASX:SLC) has lifted its FY26 underlying EBITDA guidance to a range of A$118 million to A$122 million, up from the A$112 million to A$120 million range set in February. That implies year-on-year growth of 28% to 32%, and it is the second guidance upgrade inside twelve months. The Lightning Broadband acquisition, which completed on 29 May, contributes only around A$700,000 to FY26, so the bulk of the lift is organic.

Alongside the upgrade, management is hosting an investor day to walk through SuperCharge29, the new three-year strategy covering FY27 to FY29. The plan leans on four levers. Organic consumer growth, operating leverage, Smart Communities expansion, and disciplined M&A.

For investors who followed the February result, when Superloop swung to a half-year profit and announced the A$165 million Lightning deal, today’s update is the proof point that the operating momentum has carried into the second half. The question now is whether the FY27 to FY29 plan can keep compounding it.

The guidance upgrade is small in dollars, large in signal

The midpoint of the new guidance range moves up by around A$4 million versus February. That is not a huge number in isolation. But it sits on top of a base that was already guiding to 28% growth, and Lightning is only contributing a token amount in FY26.

Read carefully, the upgrade is mostly underlying performance in the second half. NBN market share has been climbing, consumer additions have been running at record levels, and the operating leverage from a largely fixed cost base is showing up in the margin line. Capex has only ticked up by A$2 million to a A$34 million to A$37 million range, which keeps the cash generation profile intact.

We think the upgrade matters less for the FY26 number itself and more for what it implies about the FY27 starting point. A higher exit run-rate, with Lightning’s full contribution still to come, gives SuperCharge29 a much firmer base than the market was modelling six months ago.

SuperCharge29 puts Smart Communities at the centre of the margin story

The three-year strategy makes Smart Communities the structural growth lever. These are the higher-margin, owned-infrastructure lots that Lightning brought into the portfolio. After completion, the national footprint sits at roughly 170,000 lots, and management has flagged accretive M&A as a continued part of the playbook.

This matters because Superloop’s NBN consumer business, while growing fast, is essentially a reseller margin. Smart Communities revenue runs on fibre that Superloop owns, so the margin profile and the customer lifetime value sit at a different level. Each new lot tilts the group margin mix higher.

The skeptical read is that fibre-to-the-premises rollouts are capital hungry and execution heavy. Management is asking investors to back a multi-year build, and the wholesale book still has the previously flagged 218,000 customer exit working through the numbers. SuperCharge29 needs the Smart Communities ramp to land cleanly to offset that drag.

What the market will be testing at the investor day

The presentation lodged is the document analysts are pulling apart and so should investors. The most important targets that have been set include >$1bn revenue, $200m EBITDA and >30% CAGR bottom line (EPS) growth.

Given the FY29 target EBITDA is materially above the A$120 million FY26 run-rate, the question becomes how much is organic versus how much depends on further M&A. Investors should want both numbers spelled out.

The Investors Takeaway for Superloop

The guidance upgrade confirms the operating story is intact. And the projected FY29 earnings base gives the current share price room to keep re-rating. But will it deliver monentum that is not yet reflected in the current share price, or is the good news already in the price after the February run.

We covered the Lightning deal and the half-year swing to profit earlier this year over at stocksdownunder, and the picture today is a continuation of that thesis rather than a reset. The next data points to watch are the FY26 full-year result and the first FY27 quarterly commentary, where Lightning’s full contribution and the SuperCharge29 milestones will start showing up in actual numbers.