KEY POINTS
- Intel has dropped about 25% from its record high of US$142.34 to around US$107.
- The fall came from a broad AI chip selloff plus fears its 18A factory will not be profitable until 2026 or 2027.
- Even after the drop, Intel trades further above its 200-day average than it did at the dot-com peak.
- Analysts are split, and the July 23 earnings report is the next big test.
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) has fallen about 25% from its record high of US$142.34, set on June 30, to around US$107 on July 8. The trigger was a broad selloff in AI chip stocks, deepened by reports that Intel’s key new factory technology may not turn a profit for another year or two. Yet even after that steep drop, Intel still looks expensive. On one measure, it is more stretched than it was at the peak of the dot-com bubble.
Why has Intel stock crashed?
Two things hit at once. First, the whole chip sector rolled over. After Bank of America warned that AI chip prices had run too hot, and reports emerged that Meta may rent out spare computing power, roughly US$1.3 trillion in semiconductor value was wiped out in days.
Second, Intel had its own bad news. Reports suggest its 18A manufacturing process may not reach profitable production until late 2026 or 2027.
Intel’s turnaround rests on its factory, or “foundry,” business winning outside customers. Last quarter that foundry earned just US$174 million from outside contract clients against US$5.4 billion in total segment revenue, while running a steep operating loss of about US$2.4 billion due to high build-out costs. The promise is still mostly a promise.
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Why is Intel still pricier than the dot-com peak?
Intel is now trading further above its 200-day moving average than at any time in its history, even higher than during the dot-com bubble, according to Yahoo Finance data. The 200-day average is just a stock’s average price over the past year, a common gauge of how far a share has run from its trend. Sitting this far above it usually flags a stock that has climbed fast and may be due for a breather.
INTC earns that label. It rose from a 52-week low of US$18.96 to US$142.34 in under a year, a gain of roughly 650%.
Is Intel a buy after the fall?
Analysts are sharply split. HSBC lifted its target to US$200 and kept a Buy, betting the foundry eventually delivers. JPMorgan called the chip selloff a “buying opportunity,” arguing AI chip shortages last well into late 2026. On the other side, Bank of America flagged a bubble, and the average analyst target sits near US$97, below today’s price.
Our view: the real test is July 23, when Intel reports quarterly results. If it shows external foundry revenue rising and clear progress on 18A yields, the dip may start to look attractive to buyers. If not, the “still expensive” worry has room to bite. Until then, waiting for proof beats catching a falling knife.
