WiseTech Global (ASX:WTC) Why the A$30 Sell-Off Could Be a Long-Term Opportunity

The A$30 Governance Discount Hiding a Software Turnaround

WiseTech Global is now trading around A$30 per share, its cheapest level in five years.

We started preparing this research yesterday, and by coincidence, fresh allegations involving founder Richard White emerged shortly after, sending the stock down 18% in a single session.

Many investors may now be asking whether this is the right time to start accumulating a high-quality software business with one of the strongest moats in global logistics technology.

The first point to acknowledge is that WiseTech now carries one of the largest governance discounts in the ASX technology sector. Insider trading reports, previous personal conduct controversies and now fresh allegations involving Richard White have all contributed to a material reputational overhang.

However, if we separate the governance concerns from the underlying fundamentals for a moment, the question becomes more interesting.

Can WiseTech still deliver a turnaround based on the strength of its core business?

These types of internal issues are unpredictable catalysts. No valuation model can forecast when they will emerge or how severely the market will react. However, based on our fundamental valuation work, we see a base-case price target of A$42 per share and a bull-case valuation of A$68 per share.

At current levels, WiseTech appears to offer a more attractive risk-reward profile than it has for some time. The business remains high quality, but investors need to recognise that the governance discount is real and may take longer than expected to unwind.

A Tale of Two Numbers to explain why the stock has fallen

The first thing to understand about WiseTech’s growth profile is that the company has historically funded a large part of its expansion through acquisitions.

In H1 FY26, e2open contributed A$249 million of revenue, helping group revenue reach A$672 million, up 76%. However, organic growth from CargoWise was only 7%. This was one of the reasons the market initially became sceptical, particularly given the large premium WiseTech paid for the e2open acquisition.

Every acquisition is different, but the pattern is usually similar. The buyer gets a step-change in top-line growth, but profitability often comes under pressure during the integration phase. WiseTech now has to integrate a much larger business, assess the product mix, remove what is not valuable and bring the best parts of e2open into its existing platform.

That process takes time.

While this integration has been underway, WiseTech has also been dealing with internal governance issues, which has contributed to a significant multiple compression in the stock.

The margin impact is already visible. Gross margins fell from 86% to 79% in H1 FY26, while EBITDA margins are currently sitting at 38%, compared with 51% a year ago.

So how do we turnaround from here

Our bull case for WiseTech is that the company is now changing how it monetises its business model.

Historically, WiseTech has relied more heavily on seat-based pricing. The company is now shifting toward a usage-based monetisation model, alongside the introduction of Value Packs. In our view, this is the highest-conviction near-term value driver in the investment case.

Instead of needing to win more customer logos to drive growth, WiseTech can now monetise based on how much customers actually use the platform. Around 95% of customers are now on this model, and management has indicated that it is driving a 2 to 5 times uplift in usage. That means customers are materially running more activity through the platform than before.

This matters because CargoWise has historically been under-monetised relative to how deeply embedded it is in customer operations. A freight forwarder may process enormous transaction volumes through CargoWise, but under a seat-based model, revenue does not fully scale with the value being created.

The new model changes that. By charging based on platform usage, WiseTech can better align revenue with customer activity and expand profitability over time.

Management is already guiding for CargoWise revenue growth of 14% to 21% in FY26, which suggests the monetisation shift is beginning to show through in the numbers.

WTC revenue forecasts

LGFF rollout ramp

The second component of the investment case is the rollout across large global freight forwarders.

This is WiseTech’s label for its largest customers, including major logistics groups such as DHL, DSV and other global operators that move freight across dozens of countries.

These are not small customers. A single large global freight forwarder, once fully rolled out across CargoWise, can represent a significant amount of recurring revenue.

However, this is not a simple switch-on process. When a major logistics company signs up, it does not go fully live overnight. The rollout typically happens office by office and country by country, which means full migration can take several years.

So far, only 11 of the top 25 global logistics companies are on CargoWise. This means there is still meaningful room for WiseTech to win new major customers, while also expanding usage within the large customers already signed.

In our model, we expect this rollout momentum to begin accelerating more meaningfully into FY27 and FY28, as existing global freight forwarder customers continue migrating more of their operations onto the platform.

What’s the Upside from here

If we strip away the internal governance issues and focus purely on the forward earnings profile of the business, WiseTech looks materially more attractive at current levels.

In our model, we expect EBITDA to grow at an average CAGR of around 26% over the next three years, reaching approximately A$1.291 billion by FY28.

Given the heightened governance risk, we apply a discounted FY28 EBITDA exit multiple range of 14x to 22x (which we think is quite reasonable). This reflects the fact that WiseTech remains a high-quality software business, but one that now carries a much larger governance risk premium than it has historically.

Even with that discount applied, the valuation looks more compelling. Our base case points to a valuation of around A$42 per share, while our bull case reaches approximately A$69 per share.

At the current share price, that creates a more attractive risk-reward setup, provided investors are comfortable with the governance overhang and willing to take a medium-term view on the earnings recovery.

With the change in WiseTech’s monetisation model and the restructuring of the e2open acquisition, there is a strong case that the business can deliver a turnaround over time.

However, we do not think this is likely to be a short-term rebound story. This is more likely to be a longer-term investment case, as institutional capital may be slower to return given the internal governance issues and reputational overhang still surrounding the company.

The fundamentals are improving, and the earnings opportunity remains meaningful, but the market will likely need to see consistent execution, margin recovery and clearer governance stability before the stock can fully re-rate.

EBITDA Forecast