KEY POINTS
- OpenAI is reportedly leaning toward delaying its IPO to 2027, with Sam Altman holding out for a US$1 trillion valuation rather than list lower in jittery markets.
- The trigger was SpaceX's rocky debut. After listing at US$135 and peaking near US$226, the stock has slid to around US$153, making bankers cautious about the next mega-float.
- Australians can't buy OpenAI directly, so the real read-through is sentiment. A cooling IPO wave pressures local AI and data-centre valuations.
- ASX names to watch: NextDC, Megaport, Weebit Nano and WiseTech all move on AI sentiment. The window isn't shut, but the easy money on AI IPOs may be done.
The AI IPO boom that felt unstoppable just hit a wall. SpaceX, the year’s blockbuster float, listed at US$135, raced to nearly US$226, then slid back to around US$153. Now OpenAI is reportedly leaning towards pushing its own listing to 2027, with chief executive Sam Altman holding out for a US$1 trillion valuation rather than list cheaper. For ASX tech investors watching from the sidelines, the question is whether the IPO window is genuinely cooling or whether Altman is just waiting for a better price.
Why SpaceX’s Slide Spooked the Market
SpaceX’s debut on 12 June was the largest IPO in history, raising about US$75 billion. It jumped 19% on day one and briefly topped a US$2 trillion valuation, which was meant to throw the window open for the AI floats lined up behind it. Instead, the stock peaked near US$226 on 16 June and has since fallen to roughly US$153, still above its US$135 issue price but well off the highs.
That round trip matters because SpaceX is now the reference price for every big AI listing to come. When the market’s flagship new float gives back a third of its value in two weeks, it tells bankers that retail enthusiasm is thinner than it looked. The debut was supposed to be a green light. Instead, it became a cautionary tale, and that is exactly what has made OpenAI’s advisers nervous.
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Altman’s Trillion-Dollar Standoff
OpenAI confidentially filed for a US listing on 8 June and is targeting a valuation of up to US$1 trillion. According to the New York Times, advisers gave executives a choice: wait until 2027 for that price, or list sooner at a lower one. Altman reportedly called any cut to the trillion-dollar target a “nonstarter”.
Here is the tension. OpenAI’s last private valuation sat between roughly US$730 billion and US$852 billion, and the company is still loss-making. A US$1 trillion debut would price in years of flawless execution. The market is being asked to back the narrative over the numbers, and the early reaction was telling: AI and chip stocks fell, and SoftBank, a major backer, dropped as much as 13%.
What It Means for ASX Tech Investors
Most Australians can’t buy OpenAI, so the read-through is sentiment, and it flows straight into local AI and data-centre names. When the OpenAI report landed alongside an Apple selloff, the selling was immediate: NextDC (ASX:NXT) fell 4.5%, Weebit Nano (ASX:WBT) lost 4.1% and Megaport (ASX:MP1) dropped 3.3% on Friday, 26 June, as South Korea’s tech-heavy KOSPI index plunged more than 8% intraday, triggering a circuit breaker.
The point is that ASX tech increasingly trades on the global AI mood, not local fundamentals. Large caps like WiseTech (ASX:WTC) and the data-centre owners carry valuations that assume AI capital keeps flowing freely. If the IPO wave stalls, that assumption gets tested. We don’t think the window is shut, but the days of buying anything AI-linked and watching it run may be over.
For ASX investors, the signal is caution, not panic. The AI story is intact, but the market is starting to ask harder questions about price.
