Could a Rolex Beat the ASX? Why Luxury Watches Are Becoming an Investor Asset Class in 2026

Most readers come to Stocks Down Under for ASX ideas, but every now and then a question lands in our inbox that has nothing to do with the share market. The latest: are luxury watches actually a sensible long-term investment, or is the whole idea just a way for collectors to justify another purchase to their spouse? The global pre-owned watch market is now estimated at roughly US$22bn and is forecast to grow to CHF 35bn by 2030, so this is no longer a niche corner of the alternatives world. But after the bubble years of 2020 to 2022, the WatchCharts Overall Market Index is still down roughly 40% from its 2022 peak — so is it really worth allocating part of your portfolio to a piece of metal you wear on your wrist?

In our view, the short answer is yes, but only at the right end of the market, with the right brands, and with a holding period measured in decades, not months.

The bull case (and the inconvenient truth)

The pitch for luxury watches as an asset class is straightforward. They are tangible, portable, internationally recognised, have low correlation with equities, and supply is genuinely scarce, i.e. Patek Philippe produces only around 70,000 pieces a year. Across cycles, the very best references have appreciated 200% to 400% over the past decade. Deloitte’s recent survey shows 34% of buyers now purchase partly to diversify their portfolio.

The inconvenient truth is that most watches are not investments — they are depreciating assets, just like cars. Trading costs are brutal once you factor in dealer margins, servicing every three to five years (typically $500 to $2,000 a pop), insurance and tax. In other words, if you can’t hold for ten years, this asset class probably isn’t for you.

The $10,000–$25,000 tier: the entry point that mostly disappoints

This is where most first-time “investor-collectors” start, and where most of them get burned. Yes, Rolex Submariners, GMT-Master IIs and Omega Speedmasters all live here. But the majority of watches at this price point trade roughly flat over the long run after costs. The exceptions are steel sports Rolex references with controlled supply — a Submariner Date or GMT-Master II “Pepsi” can still command modest premiums over retail. Tudor Black Bay and Omega Seamaster sit here too, but think of them as wearable assets rather than appreciating ones. Our take: only buy in this tier if you genuinely love the watch.

The $25,000–$100,000 tier: where the real action is

This is the sweet spot for luxury watches, capturing the bulk of blue-chip references — Audemars Piguet Royal Oak, Patek Philippe Aquanaut, Rolex Daytona in precious metal, Vacheron Constantin Overseas. Annual appreciation on the AP index has run at around 8% over the past five years, with select Aquanaut references compounding above 11%.

According to early-2026 data, around 56% of Rolex models and 63% of Audemars Piguet models still trade above retail. For investors with $50,000 to $100,000 to deploy, this is the tier with the best ratio of liquidity to upside. Watches here are easy to authenticate, easy to insure and easy to sell.

The $100,000+ tier: trophy assets, real returns

Above $100,000, you are buying scarcity. Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711s that originally retailed for $30,000 to $38,000 now trade above $100,000. Aquanaut Flyback Chronographs at a $61,766 retail are changing hands at $130,000 to $160,000, with a 5-year return north of 55%. Richard Mille and discontinued Genta-era Royal Oaks sit here too.

This tier has held up best through the post-2022 correction, because when the very rich sneeze, the merely rich panic, but trophies tend to keep their bid. The catch is liquidity: selling a $250,000 Royal Oak in a hurry is not the same as selling 1,000 shares of CBA.

Which brands actually hold value?

The “Big Three” — Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet — still account for roughly 64% of secondary market value, and we would add Richard Mille and Vacheron Constantin to that core list. Stick to steel sports references with iconic design language and tightly controlled production.
Cartier’s Santos is also worth a mention, with brand equity surging among younger collectors. Avoid limited editions designed primarily as marketing exercises, and treat anything from a brand without 50 years of auction history as a fashion item, not an investment.

Where to buy (and how not to get conned)

The biggest risk in this market is fakes, and modern counterfeits can fool even experienced collectors. For pre-owned luxury watches, Chrono24 is the deepest marketplace globally, and its Certified programme uses verified watchmakers to authenticate watches against stolen-goods databases for a US$249 fee, with payments held in escrow for 14 days.
WatchBox is excellent for curated pre-owned pieces with a 15-month global warranty, Sotheby’s and Phillips lead for trophy auction pieces, and authorised dealers remain the safest option for new. Always demand original box and papers, verify Trusted Seller status, and never let a too-good-to-be-true price override your scepticism.

Can I buy a watch in my Self-Managed Super?

The good news is that collectable watches can legally be held inside a self-managed super fund (SMSF) in Australia, but the bad news is that the rules are far stricter than many investors realise.

The ATO treats luxury watches such as Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet as “collectables and personal-use assets”, meaning they must be held purely for investment purposes under the fund’s sole purpose test. Trustees and related parties cannot wear the watches, store them at home or derive any personal benefit from them. The watches must also be insured in the SMSF’s name, stored appropriately and fully documented for audit purposes.

While some high-end luxury watches have appreciated strongly over long periods due to scarcity and collector demand, they remain illiquid assets that generate no income. That means SMSFs investing in watches need a clear investment rationale and strong compliance procedures. So, we think for most investors, watches may ultimately make more practical sense outside the superannuation system.

Getting started

If you are new to investing in luxury watches, our suggested approach is simple. Set a budget you would not lose sleep over. Pick one or two iconic steel sports references from the Big Three. Buy the best example you can afford with full provenance, plan to hold for at least ten years, and make sure you actually love wearing it, because the only truly bad watch investment is one that sits unworn in a safe.