KEY POINTS
- CSL (ASX: CSL) jumped 5.7% to A$97.91 on Friday, its best day since February 2022.
- Healthcare was the real story, rising 3.5% as money moved out of miners and into the sector.
- CSL is still down nearly 60% over the year after profit warnings, a CEO change, and about US$5 billion in write-downs.
- One good day is not proof that the bottom is in. We would wait for the gains to hold before turning positive.
CSL (ASX:CSL) jumped 5.7% to A$97.91 on Friday, its best day since February 2022. After a year of heavy losses, buyers finally stepped back in. The bigger story was the sector around it. Healthcare, the worst part of the ASX lately, suddenly became the place everyone wanted to be. So the question for investors is simple: is this the start of a real recovery, or just a quick bounce in a stock that is still shaky?
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Money Moves Out of Miners and Into Healthcare
The healthcare sector rose 3.5%, its best session in years, while the mining-heavy materials sector fell 2.3%. This was no accident. Over the past year, healthcare stocks had dropped as much as 47%, while miners had gained almost as much. When two sectors sit at opposite extremes like this, money often rushes from one into the other. That is exactly what we saw here.
CSL was not alone. Cochlear (ASX:COH) rose 5.6%, ResMed (ASX:RMD) gained 4.3%, Pro Medicus (ASX:PME) added 4.0%, and Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX:TLX) climbed 3.3%. When all the big names in a sector jump together, it usually means investors are buying the whole sector, not reacting to one company’s news. That makes it harder to know if the move will last.
Why CSL Fell So Hard
To understand the bounce, you need to understand the fall, and it built up over more than a year. The trouble started in August 2025, when CSL announced a major restructure, including about 3,000 job cuts and a plan to spin off its Seqirus flu-vaccine business. Then in October, it cut its profit forecast and delayed that spin-off, as flu vaccination rates in the US dropped faster than expected.
The worst, though, came in 2026. In February, profit crashed by around 81% from a year earlier, and the long-serving CEO left. In May, new interim boss Gordon Naylor finished a business review and delivered the knockout blow: another cut to the profit outlook, now pointing to lower earnings than last year, plus about US$5 billion in non-cash write-downs, mostly tied to its Vifor business, the iron-deficiency and kidney-disease unit it bought in 2022. The shares fell as much as 22% in a single day, their worst on record, hitting a 10-year low. That, more than anything, is why CSL is so cheap today.
The good news is that the core business is still strong. Its blood-plasma arm brings in more than 70% of revenue and is very hard for rivals to copy. This week, a long-serving director also bought shares, a small but real sign of confidence.
The Investor’s Takeaway for CSL
One good day does not undo a year of pain. CSL is still down nearly 60% over the past year and sits near its lowest price in a decade. For patient investors, that could turn out to be a bargain, but only if the turnaround works and a new permanent CEO can win back trust.
For now, we would stay careful. Friday’s rise came from the whole sector, not from CSL itself, and the company is still facing a year of falling profit. One strong day is not proof that the bottom is in. We would rather see the gains hold for a few weeks, ideally backed by solid full-year results in August, before turning more positive.
