This Promising ASX Copper Junior Might Have A Multi Billion Dollar Copper Mine in the Making

Alma Metals is an ASX copper junior advancing one of the most intriguing copper development stories out there. Alma’s Briggs project sits in central Queensland, 60km west of Gladstone, and already contains 2Mt of copper metal at a 0.15% cut‑off.

That alone places it among Australia’s largest undeveloped copper systems. But the more important point is what this means in the current market. The copper crunch is unfolding in real time, and projects with scale, simplicity and Tier‑1 jurisdictional advantages are becoming strategic assets.

Briggs Is Looking Like a Monster

Briggs is a porphyry system, the geological style responsible for more than 60% of global copper supply. These deposits are rarely high grade, but they compensate with volume, continuity and the ability to support large‑scale, low‑cost open‑pit operations. Briggs fits that mould.

The resource is 932Mt at 0.21% Cu, 36ppm Mo and 0.6g/t Ag. It outcrops along a 2.2km strike and remains open at depth. Drilling to date has been consistently positive, with strong copper grades in the deepest holes and clear indications that the current resource boundary is drilling‑constrained rather than geologically constrained.

The infrastructure picture is equally compelling. Heavy‑haulage rail, multiple 275kV power lines, gas pipelines and sealed roads all sit within 15km of the project. Access to the Port of Gladstone is straightforward. The land is freehold agricultural tenure. The region has a deep mining workforce. These are not trivial advantages — they compress capital intensity and reduce permitting risk, two of the biggest hurdles for any large‑scale copper development.

The Copper Crunch

But the real tailwind for Alma is the structural shift underway in the copper market. Demand is rising across traditional and emerging sectors: electric vehicles, wind turbines, grid infrastructure and, increasingly, AI data centres, which alone are forecast to require an average of 400kt of copper annually over the next decade. At the same time, supply is tightening. Grades are falling at major mines, permitting timelines are lengthening, and new large‑scale discoveries are scarce. Several of the world’s top‑10 copper mines have recently cut production due to engineering challenges, further tightening the market.

This imbalance is driving capital into the sector. Investors have seen BHP’s US$49bn pursuit of Anglo American for its copper exposure, its A$9.6bn acquisition of Oz Minerals, and Evolution’s billion‑dollar moves on Ernest Henry and Northparkes. At the development stage, the trend is just as clear. MACH Metals acquired Rex Minerals for A$393m to secure the Hillside project. Kinterra Capital paid a >100% premium for New World Resources to secure the high‑grade Antler project in Arizona. Harmony Gold paid A$1.6bn for MAC Copper and committed US$2.4bn to build EVA. Sandfire committed A$240m to earn into Kalkaroo.

The message is simple: long‑life copper assets in Tier‑1 jurisdictions are rare, and buyers are willing to pay for them.

In that context, Briggs stands out. It is a high‑volume porphyry system with a low strip ratio, favourable metallurgy and a location that materially reduces capital intensity. It is broadly comparable to Hillside by contained metal, albeit at a lower grade consistent with porphyry systems, but with lower mining and processing costs. It is expected to produce roughly the same amount of copper as EVA, but with around 40% less capital and an additional 5–6 years of potential mine life. For a junior with a market capitalisation of just under A$30m, the leverage is extraordinary.

A New Drilling Campaign Is Set To Commence

Alma is now executing a 12–15‑month drilling campaign designed to convert the bulk of the Inferred resource into Indicated, test depth extensions and drill high‑priority extensional targets. This is the de‑risking phase that will underpin a Pre‑Feasibility Study in 2027. The company has already begun environmental baseline work, geotechnical logging and metallurgical test programs, all the hallmarks of a project transitioning from exploration to development.

With the system open at depth and strong grades in the deepest holes, the dual thesis of resource growth and resource confidence upgrade should support sustained news flow over the next 12–18 months.

A Lot of Value To Be Unlocked

The question, then, is what Briggs could be worth if it becomes a mine. And Pitt Street Research has taken a stab at it in a report published this morning.

Pitt Street modelled a large‑scale open‑pit mine using updated copper prices, revised operating cost assumptions and a 25‑year mine life. The result is a post‑tax NPV (using a 7% discount rate) of A$2.93bn.

You may remember Pitt Street’s original initiation model, published in November 2025, used a conservative copper price of US$4.50/lb and generated a post‑tax NPV of A$1.39bn. Since then, copper prices have re‑rated materially, and Pitt Street updated its model to reflect a price of US$6/lb. They also revised operating costs to US$1.70/lb, down from US$1.99/lb, based on favourable metallurgical characteristics observed in drilling and the project’s simple geometry and continuous outcrop. These factors support efficient large‑scale mining and lower power consumption due to coarse primary grind sizes.

The model assumed annual production of 61,175 tonnes of copper, a 25‑year mine life, upfront capex of A$1.5bn, sustaining capex at 3% of upfront capex, and a working capital requirement of 5% of opex. The exchange rate assumption of A$1 = US$0.71 is conservative: Pitt Street notes that using US$0.65 would increase the NPV to A$3.4bn.

With these inputs, the model generates an NPV of A$2.931bn and an IRR of 35%. The sensitivity analysis is instructive: at US$6.50/lb copper and US$1.50/lb opex, the NPV rises to A$3.623bn; at US$7/lb and US$1.30/lb, it exceeds A$4.3bn. Even at lower copper prices, the project remains robust.

There’s Briggs, Caravel…And Little Else

The report also contextualises valuation expectations. Caravel Minerals, which owns what is the only other large undeveloped copper resource in Australia, trades at just under 14% of its PFS NPV. Applying a similar percentage to Briggs would imply a market capitalisation for Alma of just under A$400m once a PFS is released — more than ten times the current valuation. That would equate to a share price above A$0.17 on the current share count, before considering dilution.

Now, of course the number fluctuates dependant on opex, forex rates and the discount rate, indeed the report has a sensitivity table. But unless you adjust them extremely, Briggs shapes up as a multi‑billion‑dollar copper project. Very few ASX juniors control assets of this scale, and even fewer have the combination of resource size, infrastructure, metallurgy and jurisdictional advantages that Briggs enjoys.

The market is beginning to recognise this. Alma has already re‑rated from under A$10m to around A$30m over the past six months, driven by exploration success and the broader copper thematic. But if the company continues to deliver drilling results that expand the resource and upgrade confidence categories, and if copper prices remain elevated, the re‑rating could continue.

The Bottom Line About The ASX Copper Junior Known As Alma

The copper crunch is real. Capital is flowing into the sector. Large‑scale porphyry systems in Tier‑1 jurisdictions are scarce. And Alma Metals controls one of the few remaining opportunities of genuine scale on the ASX.

Alma is a research client of Pitt Street Research. Pitt Street directors own shares.