US Markets Overnight: Hormuz hopes, chip hiccups and a Dow that just won’t quit

US Markets Overnight floated on oil hope. Wednesday’s US session was less a single story than three competing ones, each shouting over the next. Oil punters were partying like the Iran war was already over. Chip traders were locking in profits after Tuesday’s memory-fuelled rampage. And the Dow Jones, blissfully unbothered by either drama, ground its way to yet another record close. The May 27 session in US markets overnight was then capped by the White House late in the day branding the original Hormuz-reopening report a “complete fabrication”, which tends to take the edge off a risk-on day.

The scoreboard, or: when the Dow does the heavy lifting

The Dow climbed 0.4% to a fresh record near 50,644, helped by the slide in oil that took a weight off airlines, industrials and consumer-facing names. The S&P 500 added a barely-there 0% to roughly 7,521 and the Nasdaq Composite eked out 0.1% to about 26,675, both ending essentially where they started as chip weakness offset the rest of tech. The Russell 2000 had an utterly forgettable session that nonetheless leaves it perched near record highs.

WTI crude was the bigger story, tumbling 5.2% to settle at US$88.68 a barrel on reports the Strait of Hormuz could reopen to pre-war traffic within a month, with Brent closing 5.0% lower at US$94.29. Spot gold drifted higher to around US$4,580 an ounce as falling yields supported bullion, while the US 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.48%, a near two-week low. Bitcoin was the wallflower of these US markets overnight, languishing near US$75,400 as ETF outflows continued to drag, leaving Tom Lee’s much-watched US$76,000 line of support looking decidedly broken. The VIX hovered near 17, the dollar index sat around 99.1, and the SOX semiconductor index dropped about 2.5%, the only major gauge to throw a proper tantrum.

The Magnificent 7 wrap: Meta moons, Microsoft mopes

Meta was the standout, ripping 3.7% higher to US$635 after Bloomberg reported the company is preparing to sell consumer subscriptions to its AI chatbot, finally giving the Street something resembling a monetisation story to offset Zuckerberg’s eye-watering AI capex bill. Adding to the love-in, Nvidia separately disclosed that Meta’s in-house ad-targeting model had delivered a 3.5x lift in ad clicks, which is exactly the kind of receipt the bulls have been demanding. Amazon was next-best, up 2.5% to US$272, extending an already 24% rally over the past seven weeks as the AWS story refuses to slow down.

Tesla climbed 1.6% to US$440 on news that April European car registrations surged 46.5%, a properly meaningful comeback story for a stock that’s spent most of 2026 in the doghouse. Apple added 0.8% to US$311, quietly grinding back toward all-time highs. Alphabet was essentially flat at US$385, the market still trying to decide whether Waymo’s robotaxi lead is worth more or less than Tesla’s.

The two laggards were Microsoft, down 0.8% to US$413 on no real catalyst, and Nvidia, off 1.1% to US$213. The Nvidia move caps an oddly muted run since the company posted a stonking Q1 print of US$81.6bn in revenue last week, up 85% year-on-year. When you can grow 85% and still see your stock drift sideways, that tells you something about where expectations have moved.

Chip check: the foundry boys had a moment, the rest copped it

Tuesday’s memory-fuelled euphoria, which saw Micron crack US$1 trillion in market cap and Korean peer SK Hynix do the same overnight in Seoul, gave way to a more sober session for the broader chip complex. The SOX index closed down about 2.5% as profit-takers turned up, with the most punished name being Qualcomm, which dropped nearly 10% on a continuation of the handset-headwinds story, lingering downgrades over Apple’s modem in-housing, and a bruising rotation out of names that ran too hot too fast. Intel slipped about 2%, giving back a chunk of Tuesday’s gain, while AMD, Broadcom and ASML all came under modest profit-taking as the AI-everything trade paused for breath.

Micron itself was the curious one, opening sharply higher in sympathy with SK Hynix’s 9.3% Seoul surge, but fading hard to close up only around 3%. The broader picture in semis is increasingly one of valuation indigestion: when the iShares Semiconductor ETF can rip 42% in 17 trading days, as it did from late March, even the bulls eventually need a breather. Nothing here suggests the AI thesis is broken, just that the punters who were quick enough to be early are now quick enough to take profits.

One thing worth watching

Thursday’s US session is suddenly the one to circle in red ink. At 8:30am ET, the Commerce Department drops the second estimate of Q1 2026 GDP alongside the April PCE inflation print, the Fed’s preferred gauge. The same morning, the FOMC releases the minutes from its April 28-29 meeting, the last one chaired by Jerome Powell before Kevin Warsh took over earlier this month.

With the war-driven oil spike still working through inflation and the new Warsh Fed yet to put its own stamp on policy, every word will be parsed for clues on whether a hawkish committee is even thinking about cutting later this year. Throw in Salesforce, HP and Dick’s Sporting Goods earnings after the bell, and watching Friday morning’s US markets overnight wrap-up becomes mandatory for Australian investors heading into the local session.