Amaero eyes A$8.4m Q4 after 301% Q3 growth
Amaero (ASX:3DA) is setting itself up for a big Q4 FY26, with expectations that the quarter will deliver A$8.4 million in revenue. Q3 came in at A$2.6 million, up 301% on the prior year, so there was no major surprise in the result itself. The real focus now is what comes next, because this is where the company needs to show a clear step-up in scale.
Investors should also note that the company did cut revenue guidance earlier, largely because of the 43-day government shutdown. But with contracted revenue now already locked in for Q4, Amaero is effectively saying that this is no longer just a target. It is revenue already secured.
What is also worth paying attention to is how the revenue base is split. One side is powder, mainly titanium alloy powders, which has been the key volume driver and is scaling quickly under exclusive supplier agreements.
The other is PM-HIP, which is the manufacturing side of the business and is now starting to scale faster as well. That matters because PM-HIP carries much higher average selling prices and better margins than powder, so the mix shift could become just as important as the top-line growth itself.
Burning to Build, but the Math Still Works
Amaero is still investing heavily to reach operating leverage, but investors should be encouraged that the early signs of scale are starting to come through. Staffing and manufacturing costs totalled A$6.7 million and remain the main cash outflow, which reflects a business still in the build-out phase.
That said, the important point is that the atomisers are now running, just not yet at full utilisation. As production volumes rise, those costs should be spread across a larger revenue base, which is where the margin improvement starts to show. That is why the Q4 guidance matters so much.
We also saw A$5 million of capex during the quarter, mainly tied to the installation of the third atomiser and the argon gas recycling plant. That is important because argon is a major operating cost, so improving efficiency there can have a real impact on the economics of the business.
It is also a point investors should not overlook when comparing Amaero to peers. This is one of the key levers that could help support a lower cost base over time.
With a current cash position of A$33 million, the company has around five quarters of runway, which gives it enough flexibility to support its FY27 plans as well.
What Is Being Built
It is important to keep tracking the operational and capex build-out because that is where a lot of the future upside will be determined.
As we have mentioned, Amaero now has two atomisers running. Both EIGA atomisers are operating and are being optimised for throughput, quality control, and process safety.
The third atomiser installation also began in Q3, which adds another production line and should materially expand powder output capacity heading into FY27. Management has already flagged a planned 100% YoY increase in titanium powder production in FY27 versus FY26.
The argon gas recycling plant is also expected to be commissioned by the end of FY26. That matters because argon is a key input cost, so as that system comes online we should start to see some reduction in production and manufacturing costs through FY27 and beyond.
That is where the economies of scale story starts to become more tangible. The production base is expanding, input efficiency is improving, and the next step is seeing that flow through into stronger margins.
The Customer List Is Getting Serious
Amaero still looks like a stock worth owning. It sits in the middle of a major US reshoring tailwind and is already showing real commercial momentum, with smaller contracts below A$10 million allowing customers to test and qualify the product before scaling up.
That is what makes the Titomic relationship so interesting. The partnership is now backed by a three-year exclusive master purchasing agreement, and Titomic generates more than A$3 billion in revenue. The initial purchase was only 4,000kg, but the bigger point is what that could grow into if qualification and delivery continue to track well.
That is why the setup looks attractive over the next year. Amaero is not being asked to prove demand from scratch. It is already inside the commercial process, and if these early orders convert into larger scale supply, the stock looks well placed for a re-rate.
