Amaero (ASX:3DA) has spent the better part of a decade building capability in titanium and refractory metal powders, refining a production technology that delivers yields the industry once assumed were unattainable, and embedding itself inside the US defence manufacturing industry.
The geopolitical shock of the Iran conflict has simply accelerated the timeline. What was already a compelling industrial story has become, almost overnight, a structurally more lucrative one.
The Proposition Amaero Has To Offer to the US Defence Manufacturing Industry
Amaero’s core proposition is straightforward: it is the only commercial‑scale US producer of EIGA Premium spherical powders, the high‑purity, high‑flowability feedstock required for additive manufacturing of hypersonic systems, precision munitions, advanced propulsion components and aerospace structures. The company’s Tennessee facility, now 100,000 square feet and AS9100D‑certified, houses the only EIGA Premium atomisers in the United States.
That is a big deal because the US defence establishment has entered a period of rapid rearmament, and the materials Amaero produces sit at the very front of that supply chain. And Amaero’s capability is not average, it is above and beyond the rest of the industry – indeed, EIGA has been found to produce a yield that is double the industry benchmark (50% vs 25%).
That single fact underpins the entire economic engine – it represents a structural cost advantage that compounds with scale. In a process where argon consumption and capital intensity are the dominant cost drivers, doubling yield effectively halves unit cost. In our view, this is the kind of advantage that becomes self‑reinforcing: lower cost enables more competitive pricing, which accelerates qualification, which deepens customer reliance, which in turn raises switching costs.
The Tennessee plant is scaling exactly as management promised. The first atomiser came online in June 2024, the second in June 2025, and the third is only weeks away. A fourth arrives in 2027. At full configuration, the facility will be capable of producing more than 800 tonnes of powder annually, supporting long‑run revenue potential north of A$300m.
The second atomiser, dedicated to titanium alloys, is already proving its worth; the third will double that capacity again. The company’s PM‑HIP business, often overlooked, is also gaining traction as the US grapples with the loss of domestic casting and forging capability. A formal Letter of Support from the US Navy validating PM‑HIP as a scalable alternative to castings is not a trivial endorsement.
The Iran Conflict Has Accelerated The Timeline
The Iran conflict has changed the demand calculus. Wars consume advanced munitions at a rate that peacetime procurement cycles never fully anticipate. The US$200bn supplemental defence budget request now before Congress is a recognition that the US must rebuild its arsenal at a pace not seen in decades. Hypersonic systems, cruise missiles, air‑launched precision weapons are precisely the systems that rely on niobium C103 and high‑temperature refractory alloys. Amaero produces those powders domestically, at scale, and at the lowest unit cost in the market.
The company’s recent A$7.8m Master Purchasing Agreement is a case study in how this demand is now crystallising. Structured as equal quarterly shipments from July 2026 to June 2027, it provides revenue visibility at a time when customers are increasingly seeking multi‑quarter commitments.
More importantly, the A$7.8m is a minimum, not a cap. This particular customer has already signalled that FY27 orders are likely to exceed the contracted floor. This is the pattern we expect to see repeatedly: once qualification is achieved, volumes tend to rise as customers embed Amaero’s powders into their own production processes. The company also disclosed that it is currently atomising five different high‑value refractory alloys in the same quarter, a sign of breadth rather than concentration.
Financially, Amaero’s trajectory is clear. Revenue of A$7.7m in 1H26 represented 366% growth on the prior period, with PM‑HIP contributing meaningfully for the first time. The December quarter alone delivered A$3.1m, up 390% year‑on‑year. Yes, FY26 guidance was revised from A$30–35m to A$18–20m, but the cause (a 43‑day US government shutdown) was a timing issue, not a demand issue. The underlying order pipeline was not cancelled; it was deferred. With the Iran conflict prompting a massive supplemental budget request, the probability of further shutdown‑driven delays has materially diminished.
Listing in the US
Amaero has made the strategic decision to re‑domicile to the United States later in 2026 and list on Wall Street. While Amaero plans to keep its ASX listing, the centre of gravity for its customers, its regulatory environment, its capital sources and its long‑term strategic relevance is American. A US listing in late 2026 or early 2027, backed by multi‑year supply agreements, would fundamentally re‑rate the company.
In our view, the market has not yet fully priced the magnitude of the geopolitical tailwind now behind Amaero. The US is rebuilding its defence industrial base at speed. Supply chains are being nationalised. Hypersonics, advanced propulsion and precision munitions are moving from development cycles into production cycles. The materials that enable those systems such as titanium, niobium C103 and refractory alloys are exactly what Amaero produces, at yields no competitor can match, in the jurisdiction where demand is accelerating fastest.
Pitt Street Research sees upside
Our friends at Pitt Street Research have issued a fresh note on Amaero this morning and have reiterated their valuation range of A$0.62–1.30 per share, a range arguably conservative given the company’s scaling profile and the margin structure achievable at four‑atomiser capacity. Pitt Street’s work on this company is worth reading; it captures the operational detail with precision.
But the broader point is simpler. Amaero is not a speculative additive‑manufacturing story. It is a strategically positioned, technologically advantaged, geopolitically leveraged supplier of critical defence materials at a moment when the United States is rearming at scale.
Amaero is a research client of Pitt Street Research.
