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Safe ASX Stocks: These 7 Companies Probably Won’t Downgrade FY26 Guidance Due To The Iran Conflict

Is there any such thing as safe ASX stocks? Maybe not in the sense of being completely risk-free, but there are some that are doing better than others right now and they are in the minority.

Amidst the latest round of ASX trading updates (spanning consumer, infrastructure and energy), all investors are looking to see if there was an impact from the Iran War, in any reported numbers as well as sentiment. Any companies with an impact will be punished – that is crystal clear. Here are 7 ASX companies that are unlikely to release downgrades and suffer the fate of Cochlear earlier this week.

Safe ASX Stocks: These 7 Companies Aren’t Being Impacted By the Iran Conflict

Zip Co (ASX:ZIP)

Zip is one of the cleanest examples of a business entirely untouched by geopolitical volatility. Its 3Q FY26 result (released last Friday – April 17 2026) reported total income of $335.2m, up 20.2% YoY, and record cash EBTDA of $65.1m, up 41.5% . Transaction volumes reached $4.0bn (+22.4%), with margins expanding to 19.4%.

The update contained no reference to geopolitical conditions, oil prices or macro volatility, all about profitability and the company’s AI pursuits. Bad debts remained stable at 1.9% of TTV, reinforcing that consumer stress has not deteriorated.

Clearly, Zip is not just unaffected, it is structurally disconnected from the Iran conflict – at least from any downside supply chain risks. The numbers prove it.

Woodside Energy (ASX:WPL)

Woodside is often assumed to be directly exposed to Middle East risk – it is a company in oil after all! Yet the latest disclosures show a more nuanced picture. While Woodside has not released a fresh quarterly update since its last set of results (which came less than a week before the conflict brought out), it appears to be business as usual.

Its most recent update (on March 26) announced the handover of its ammonia facility in Texas was complete and there was potential to help double US ammonia exports. The bulk of the world’s supply comes from the Middle East, especially from Iran and so prices have soared over 30%. Onshoring ammonia production is one way to overcome the crisis – if a country can, of course.

Woodside as a company is exposed, but not in a way that reflects operational stress, and certainly not in any way that suggests a negative impact.

Aurizon Holdings (ASX:AZJ)

Aurizon is Australia’s largest freight operator with the bulk of its business coming from the transportation of coal. This company’s earnings profile remains defined by domestic haulage contracts rather than global volatility. While it has not released an update since its 1H26 results in February, these operational disclosures showed stable haulage volumes and consistent earnings expectations. Its revenue rose 4% and its (underlying) profit by 16%.

Keep in mind that contracts are not repriced daily based on oil or geopolitical events, and commodity volumes remain robust enough to sustain throughput. Aurizon is not rising because of the conflict, but it is not falling either. It is a textbook example of a business unaffected by Iran.

Wesfarmers (ASX:WES)

Wesfarmers’ trading performance is all about domestic retail earnings. As a company that in 2022 and 2023 benefited from consumers trading down from slightly more expensive outlets like Baby Bunting, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to assume a similar impact here.

Its 1H26 results showed a 3% jump in revenue and a 9% jump in profit. In these results, the company said,’ Bunnings and Kmart’s well-established everyday low price operating models deliver sustainable growth in earnings through a relentless focus on productivity and low prices’. The company also alluded to its joint venture lithium project, saying performance had been pleasing and there was flexibility to sell volumes in excess of refinery requirements.

Wesfarmers may not necessarily be benefiting from the conflict, but nor is it exposed to it in any meaningful way. Its earnings trajectory should remain intact.

Ampol (ASX:ALD)

Ampol is a rare company where the Iran conflict is showing up in the numbers — in updates released since the end of February.  Its 1Q 2026 update (released on April 22 2026) reported a surge in the Lytton Refiner Margin to US$25.45/bbl, up from US$6.07 a year earlier, with refinery production up 10% to 1,434m litres. Group sales volumes were broadly flat at 6,125m litres (-0.3%).

This is a classic margin‑driven earnings uplift. As the document notes, “global refining margins have expanded following the escalation in the Middle East”. Operationally, Ampol remains stable. Supply chains are intact, supported by pre‑secured crude and diversified sourcing. Even with “considerable uncertainty,” there is no evidence of disruption.

Ampol is not insulated, it is economically leveraged to the conflict; but the effect is currently favourable.

Goodman (ASX:GMG)

Goodman’s earnings engine remains anchored in long‑duration structural themes (data centre expansion, logistics demand and capital deployment), rather than short‑term geopolitical shocks. While there have been no new detailed trading updates since late February, its 2022–23 performance already demonstrated that development profits, rental income and capital partnerships are driven by secular demand for logistics and data‑centre assets, not by episodic macro events.

Those results showed that Goodman could continue to grow through periods of elevated inflation, higher rates and cost‑of‑living pressure, because its tenants (hyperscale data operators and logistics users) are themselves leveraged to cloud computing and e‑commerce. On that basis, it is reasonable to assume that the Iran conflict is not a material variable for Goodman’s earnings trajectory; the more important determinants remain its development pipeline, leasing outcomes and capital recycling.

Coles (ASX:COL)

In our view, Coles’ 2022–23 performance offers a useful guide to how it behaves under stress. Through that period of acute cost‑of‑living pressure, Coles delivered steady revenue growth, supported by food inflation and population growth, while protecting margins via mix, pricing and cost control.

Supermarket demand is non‑discretionary, and prior results showed that input‑cost volatility could be passed through over time without destabilising earnings. Given that history, it is not unreasonable to assume a similar pattern today: the Iran conflict may influence some input costs at the margin, but the core earnings profile is more likely to reflect domestic consumption, competition dynamics and execution than geopolitical shocks.

Stocks Down Under (Pitt Street Research AFSL 1265112) provides actionable investment ideas on ASX-listed stocks. This content provides general information only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. © 2026 Stock Down Under. All Rights Reserved.

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