Uber (NYSE:UBER): Finally mature and profitable, but with more growth to come

More than a decade and a half since it was founded, Uber (NYSE:UBER) is finally a mature company. It has made its first and second annual profits, has either won or favourably settled all the wars it has been in, and has the right management team to take it to the next phase of growth. And yes, there is more growth to come.

Recap of the history of Uber

If you don’t know who Uber is, you’ve probably been living on Planet Mars. But for those who don’t, let’s recap. Uber is a company that provides mobility services, consumer delivery services and even industrial freight services.

It all began in San Francisco in 2008 when Travis Kalanick and Garrett Camp became frustrated with taxi services in that city and developed the app that could hail taxis. It was inspired in-part by James Bond tracking his car with his Sony Ericsson in Casino Royale.

Take a look at its first pitch deck from 2008 that helped it raise US$200,000 – particularly slide 20 when it talks about a Best and Worst case scenario. The worst-case scenario was that it remained a 10-car, 100-client service in the Fog City, but the Best-Case is that it becomes a market leader with $1bn+ in yearly revenue. Doesn’t seem like they imagined a scenario where it would be a company generating $52bn in revenue and $90bn in gross bookings

Not making friends, but good at raising money

Gone are the days of wondering where your taxi is, fishing your wallet for coins to pay. How many taxi drivers get users who just jump out because they are so used to frictionless Uber? Imagine a business that gets $50-100 every time someone enters or exits a city. That is Uber.

As it grew, it encountered opposition from the taxi industry and sympathetic lawmakers. However, that did not stop it from continuing to raise money, culminating in a 2019 NYSE IPO. Why? Because venture capitalists thought that the law would give way before Uber (and rightly so). When a business model is so badly broken, consumers will go out of their way to find a better service, even to the point of breaking the law.

Where it is at and where it is headed

Uber is now run by Dara Khosrowshahi, who succeeded Kalanick in 2017. He cleaned up the image of the company, which has suffered due to revelations about the culture Kalanick had created. After fighting laws that labelled drivers as employees, the company has waved the white flag, declaring that it could cope under any regulatory framework (although it would inevitably have to raise prices in some areas).

In 2025, the company made $44.2bn in bookings, $22.8bn of which came from ‘mobility bookings and the rest from delivery booking. 3.1 billion trips were made. The company made $770m in income from operations.

The most recent full‑year results, FY25, marked a decisive turning point. Uber generated US$52.0bn in revenue and US$8.73bn in EBITDA. GAAP EPS came in at US$4.73, although this figure included non‑operating gains. The more meaningful figure is normalised EPS of US$2.45, which translates to roughly US$4.99bn in underlying net income using the company’s 2,035m shares on issue. This was the first clean demonstration that Uber can generate profit without relying on accounting adjustments. The company ended the year with US$7bn in cash and more than 30 million Uber One members. Membership matters because multi‑product customers spend roughly three times more than single‑product users. It is this rather than price increases that is driving the company’s margin expansion.

The company’s Q1 FY26 performance reinforced the trend. Trips grew at double‑digit rates, gross bookings increased, and net income remained positive even after stripping out investment revaluations. Uber is now a business that can grow and generate cash at the same time — something that was unthinkable five years ago.

The 3 growth pillars

Its growth has been defined by three strategic pillars and the same will apply in the decade ahead: membership, logistics and autonomy. Uber One is becoming the company’s most important asset. Members take more trips, order more food, and exhibit higher retention. The company has been expanding the program aggressively, adding benefits, integrating with partners, and pushing into new markets. Membership is the glue that binds Uber’s ecosystem together. It is also the engine that drives predictable, recurring revenue — something Uber lacked for most of its life.

Delivery has also matured into a structural business rather than a pandemic‑era anomaly. Uber Eats remains one of the largest food‑delivery platforms in the world, and the company has expanded into groceries, retail and convenience. The more interesting development is the integration of mobility and delivery logistics. Uber is increasingly positioning itself as a real‑time logistics network, not just a ride‑hailing app. This is where the company’s scale becomes a competitive advantage.

Autonomy is the wildcard, and potentially the biggest driver of long‑term margin expansion. Uber has launched autonomous ride‑hailing in Dubai through its partnership with Re‑ride. It has deployed autonomous sidewalk robots in Austin and Dallas. And it has formed a joint venture with Nvidia to develop AI‑powered autonomous driving systems. Autonomy is not a near‑term revenue driver, but it is the long‑term lever that could transform Uber’s cost structure. If even a fraction of trips become autonomous, the economics of the platform change dramatically.

Uber is also embedding AI across its core operations. The company is using machine learning to optimise pricing, improve user experience, personalise recommendations, help drivers identify high‑earning areas, reduce fraud and streamline customer support. These tools are already improving efficiency and increasing revenue per user. Uber is not an AI company in the way Nvidia is, but it is an AI‑enabled company — and that distinction matters.

It is easy to think that when a company like Uber is so dominant, it cannot get bigger. The company claims otherwise, telling investors it has more growth to come, launching Uber for teens in America and Uber for taxis in Japan. More and more members are joining its loyalty program, and its machine learning tools are getting stronger and stronger.

But the company is priced responably

The consensus numbers for FY26 and FY27 show a business that is still growing at a healthy clip. Analysts expect FY26 revenue of US$58.2bn and EBITDA of US$11.27bn. Normalised EPS is forecast at US$3.33, which translates to roughly US$6.77bn in net income. For FY27, analysts expect revenue of US$67.0bn, EBITDA of US$13.70bn and normalised EPS of US$4.42, equivalent to roughly US$9.00bn in net income.

On these estimates, Uber trades at roughly 22x FY26 earnings and 17x FY27 earnings. EV/EBITDA sits in the mid‑teens. The PEG ratio is close to 1.0. These are growth‑at‑a‑reasonable‑price multiples for a company with global scale, recurring revenue, strong cash flow, a dominant market position and a credible autonomy strategy. Uber is no longer a speculative bet. It is a mature platform with multiple growth vectors.

Now of course there are risks facing the company. Uber faces regulatory uncertainty in some markets, competition from Lyft, DoorDash and local players, execution risk in autonomy, macroeconomic sensitivity in discretionary spending and geopolitical risk in global operations. But the company has already survived the most existential threats. It is this rather than any near‑term volatility that defines Uber’s risk profile today.

A good growth opportunity

Uber has entered a new era. It is profitable. It is disciplined. It is growing. And it is building the infrastructure for a future where mobility, delivery and logistics are increasingly automated. The company is not the chaotic disruptor it once was. It is a mature tech giant with a second wave of growth ahead — driven by membership, logistics, AI and autonomy. So if you’ve missed out on the growth story to date, there’s little further reason to hold out further.