ASX Energy Stocks to Watch in Fuel Supply Crunch
Australia’s fuel supply is under serious pressure. Last Wednesday, a major fire hit Viva Energy’s Geelong refinery, Australia’s largest. That single plant supplies around 10 per cent of the country’s fuel and more than half of Victoria’s. The blaze mostly affected petrol production, and while Viva plans to cover the shortfall through imports, those imports just became much harder to secure.
The reason: on Saturday, Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz, reversing Friday’s brief reopening, and an Indian supertanker, the Sanmar Herald, was fired on by Iranian gunboats near the waterway. The US-Iran ceasefire expires on Wednesday, and President Trump has signalled he may not extend it. Brent crude closed at US$87 on Friday but is widely expected to open higher on Monday. For ASX investors, the risk firmly skews to the upside for domestic energy producers.
4 ASX Energy Stocks Positioned to Benefit From the Supply Squeeze
Ampol (ASX: ALD)
With Viva’s Geelong refinery running at reduced rates, Ampol’s Lytton refinery in Queensland is effectively the country’s only fully operational refinery. Ampol has already pushed its scheduled Lytton maintenance from June to August 2026, freeing up an extra 300 million litres of domestic fuel. Refining margins have been strong, with FY25 EBIT jumping 32 per cent to A$947 million and net profit up 83 per cent. We believe Ampol is the clearest direct beneficiary of the squeeze, though investors should expect rising political scrutiny over Australia’s new single point of failure.
Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS)
Woodside is Australia’s largest oil and gas producer and offers the most direct large-cap way to play higher oil prices. The stock is up roughly 40 per cent year to date, supported by long-term LNG contracts and a dividend yield above 5 per cent. With Hormuz closed again and the ceasefire expiring on Wednesday, Woodside is well placed if prices spike this week. Our view is that much of the good news is already priced in, so this suits commodity bulls rather than bargain hunters.
Santos (ASX: STO)
Santos offers a blend of East Coast domestic gas and international LNG through GLNG and its newly started Barossa project. One caution: Santos has temporarily shut its Darwin LNG plant to fix compressor seal issues on the BW Opal vessel, with no firm restart date. Once that problem is resolved, we believe Santos offers a more balanced risk-reward than Woodside, with domestic gas pricing providing a softer landing if oil prices retreat.
Beach Energy (ASX: BPT)
Beach produces oil and gas across five basins in Australia and New Zealand, with heavy exposure to east coast domestic gas. Its smaller market cap means the stock typically moves harder than its peers in both directions. First half FY26 revenue of A$982 million included a meaningful contribution from Waitsia LNG cargoes. For investors comfortable with volatility, Beach offers the highest beta exposure to a sustained supply squeeze.
The Investor’s Takeaway
In our view, Ampol looks like the most direct near-term beneficiary given its refining position, though the stock is not cheap. Woodside suits commodity bulls. Santos offers balanced exposure once Darwin restarts. Beach is the aggressive trade. The key risks are a last-minute Iran deal that reopens Hormuz for good, a faster-than-expected Geelong restart, and any OPEC+ move at the May 3 meeting to accelerate production. For the thesis to keep working, supply tightness needs to persist well into the second half of 2026.
