Iran Re-Closes Hormuz: ASX Stocks to Buy and Avoid
Oil markets delivered one of the wildest 48 hours in years. On Friday, WTI crude tumbled nearly 12 per cent to close at US$83.85, and Brent fell about 9 per cent to settle at US$90.38 after Iran’s foreign minister announced the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20 per cent of global oil, was open again. The fuel premium that had weighed on ASX airlines and consumer names appeared to collapse in a single session.
Then came the weekend twist. By Saturday, Iran had re-closed the strait and fired on two Indian-flagged tankers, citing the ongoing US naval blockade of its ports. That about-face means Monday’s ASX open should look very different from what Friday’s action implied. In our view, oil should rebound, energy stocks should find buyers, and fuel-sensitive names are likely back under pressure.
What are the Best ASX Stocks to invest in right now?
4 ASX Stocks to Buy as the Oil Premium Snaps Back
Woodside Energy (ASX:WDS)
Woodside is the ASX’s largest oil and gas producer and the most direct way to play crude on the local market. With Scarborough LNG approaching its first cargo in Q4 2026 and shipping disruption keeping supply tight, we believe WDS should lead energy stocks higher on Monday. Every US$1 move in Brent flows quickly to Woodside’s earnings.
Santos (ASX:STO)
Santos offers both oil and LNG exposure, with Barossa having shipped its first cargo in late January. A Hormuz supply squeeze lifts LNG spot prices as much as crude, which suits STO’s mix. Our view: a near-term tailwind that strengthens the bull case without changing the long-term growth story.
Beach Energy (ASX:BPT)
Beach has the highest sensitivity to oil prices among ASX mid-caps, meaning its stock moves more than peers on big oil days. If Friday’s sell-off fully unwinds on Monday, BPT is the name most likely to post the biggest single-day gain.
Ampol (ASX:ALD)
As Australia’s last major refiner, Ampol benefits from two things at once: higher fuel prices and renewed focus on why domestic refining matters. The “last refinery standing” narrative lost some shine on Friday. It should return on Monday.
4 ASX Stocks to Avoid as Fuel Costs Stay High
Qantas (ASX:QAN)
Qantas was the market’s biggest fuel-spike victim. On April 14, management flagged that 2H26 fuel costs would jump to A$3.1 to A$3.3 billion, roughly A$800 million above prior guidance, after jet refining margins blew out sixfold from US$20 to US$120 per barrel. Friday offered hope of relief. Saturday takes it away. We believe QAN heads back towards its early-April lows.
Transurban (ASX:TCL)
Expensive petrol eventually means lower traffic volumes across Transurban’s toll roads. The impact is gradual, but TCL tends to trade more softly when fuel prices stay elevated.
Wesfarmers (ASX:WES)
Wesfarmers runs Bunnings and Kmart, both exposed to higher freight and input costs when oil runs hot. A sustained fuel premium chips away at retail margins just as consumer spending is already softening.
Bluescope Steel (ASX:BSL)
Steelmaking is energy-intensive, and BSL is directly exposed to higher gas and oil input costs. Cheaper energy lifts margins; more expensive energy squeezes them. Monday’s setup is the wrong one for BSL.
The Investor’s Takeaway
This is a fast-moving story with real whiplash risk. The current ceasefire expires Tuesday, April 21, and a second round of US-Iran talks is expected to return to Islamabad in the coming days, after the first round on April 11 to 12 failed. In our view, aggressive traders can lean into Monday’s energy rebound, but should not hold positions blindly into Tuesday’s deadline. If no deal is signed and the ceasefire lapses, the war premium snaps back hard. Long-term investors should not chase the rebound. Quality names like WDS remain attractive, but expect more volatility until there is clarity on the strait.
