Can Falling Rates Boost These July ASX IPOs?

Australia’s IPO market is approaching a potential turning point, as recent economic data indicates a likely shift in monetary policy. With inflation trending lower and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expected to begin easing the interest rate from July to August 2025, market conditions are becoming more favourable for new listings. Recent strong listings in June, most notably Virgin Australia (ASX: VGN) and Greatland Resources (ASX: GGP), suggest market appetite is returning. But can the next wave of IPOs ride this momentum?

 

Rate Cuts in Sight: What It Means for New Listings

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) appears firmly on course to usher in a new monetary easing cycle, with economists anticipating the first 25-basis-point rate cut as early as 8 July 2025, bringing the cash rate down to 3.60%. This follows months of cooling inflation data, with the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) easing to 2.1%, now comfortably sitting within the central bank’s 2–3% target range. Core inflation, the RBA’s preferred trimmed mean measure, also moderated to 2.4%, a level not seen in over three years.

Commonwealth Bank’s economics team has cited this data as a catalyst for immediate easing, while Westpac has gone further, forecasting up to four cuts between July 2025 and mid-2026, potentially lowering the cash rate to 2.85%. Markets have begun pricing in further moves in August and November, especially after the soft May retail sales figures, which edged up just 0.2%, missing expectations and adding to the narrative that Australia’s economy is in a cooling phase.

So what does this mean for IPOs?

Falling interest rates are one of the most powerful tailwinds for new equity issuance, especially in the yield-starved environment facing many Australian investors. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of deploying capital into equities, while simultaneously enhancing the attractiveness of growth narratives and dividend-paying structures. As term deposit rates and bond yields compress, we believe IPOs offering income streams, credible cash flow projections, or exposure to structural growth will increasingly catch the eye of both institutional and retail investors.

 

Reference Points: June’s IPO Performance

The June IPO calendar on the ASX was unexpectedly busy, offering a blend of household names, credit-focused vehicles, and resource plays. A few standout listings not only defied the cautious sentiment earlier in the year but also signalled that the market is already beginning to warm up, thanks in part to expectations of monetary easing. Let’s take a dee

Virgin Australia (ASX: VGN)

When Virgin Australia (ASX: VGN) relisted on 24 June 2025 at $2.90 per share, raising A$685 million, the market took notice. The stock surged to $3.23 on its first day, a rise of nearly 11.4%, signalling investor enthusiasm for the airline’s post-insolvency turnaround. This debut was particularly meaningful given the market’s initial hesitance toward large-scale IPOs in 2025. In fact, it was one of the largest ASX floats since AUB Group’s capital raise in 2024Behind the scenes, Bain Capital’s multi-year restructuring of Virgin proved pivotal.

Having acquired the airline for A$3.5 billion in 2020 following its administration, Bain retooled Virgin with a focus on cost efficiency, fleet modernisation, and a leaner, domestic-first strategy. The IPO not only allowed Bain to partially exit (retaining ~39%) but also rewarded investors with a proven growth story at a time when the Qantas–Jetstar duopoly faced regulatory and reputational pressures.

Institutional demand was the key driver, with cornerstone participation from major funds such as Argo Investments, Perpetual, and VGI Partners. The float deliberately avoided a heavy retail push, instead leaning into long-term institutional holders who viewed Virgin’s route dominance, hedging strategy (98% of fuel locked at ~$70/barrel), and domestic rebound as key positives.

Greatland Resources (ASX: GGP)

The same week, Greatland Resources (ASX: GGP) floated at $6.60, raising A$490 million, and immediately saw its shares rally by up to 14%, peaking at $7.50. Notably, this wasn’t a blue-sky explorer hoping for future drill success; Greatland arrived at the ASX with a fully formed production narrative. Its anchor assets, Telfer and Havieron, developed in partnership with Newmont, are producing gold and copper with short-to-mid-term revenue potential.

Broker sentiment post-IPO was highly favourable. Macquarie initiated coverage with an “Outperform” rating and a $7.80 price target, citing not only asset strength but the company’s proactive dual-listing strategy (AIM and ASX), which broadens institutional access across regions. Canaccord Genuity forecasted annual production of 280–320koz Au and 7–11kt Cu, lending credibility to the float’s valuation.

Greatland’s success is a clear sign that resource IPOs aren’t dead, but they must be backed by assets with visible earnings power. The company’s mix of existing production, high-quality partners, and expansion optionality created the kind of derisked resource play investors crave in uncertain times. When capital is tight, the best assets float, not the boldest promises.

La Trobe Private Credit Fund (ASX: LF1)

Rounding out the month, La Trobe Financial’s Private Credit Fund (ASX: LF1) was listed on 27 June after raising its A$300 million target at $2.00 per unit. What sets (ASX: LF1) apart is its yield offering, pegged at the RBA cash rate + 3.25%, equating to roughly 7.1% p.a. at current rates. With a quarterly off-market buyback mechanism built in, the company also offers a layer of liquidity uncommon in traditional credit funds.

Investor appetite was strong. The IPO was led by top-tier brokers, Morgan Stanley, CommSec, and Taylor Collison, and had substantial interest from SMSFs and defensive income investors. Given that government bonds now yield less than 3.5%, a floating-rate instrument that offers over 7% with credit-quality backing has quickly found favour.

La Trobe (ASX: LF1) has long been a respected name in the credit market. Its track record in residential and SME lending and its reputation for risk management helped give investors confidence. More importantly, it showed that credit-based IPOs can thrive when rates are coming down, because the spread above the RBA cash rate becomes more attractive, and potentially more stable, as the base rate stabilises.

 

Key Takeaways from June’s IPO Leaders:

• Strong institutional backing matters: All three listings, Virgin (ASX: VGN), Greatland (ASX: GGP), and La Trobe (ASX: LF1), relied heavily on trusted, visible institutional investors to lend credibility.
• Proven models trump speculative hype: Markets are rewarding firms with operational cash flow, quality assets, or real earnings visibility.
• Yield is king in a falling rate world: La Trobe’s success signals demand for income vehicles will intensify as term deposit rates fall back below inflation.
• Private equity execution helps: Both Virgin (ASX: VGN) and La Trobe (ASX: LF1) had private equity fingerprints, structural efficiency, risk management, and strong governance.

In short, June’s standout IPOs were not random flashes of success; they were indicative of what this market wants: income, structure, and certainty.

 

July & Beyond: What’s Next?

July marks a significant test for ASX IPO appetite, with five notable listings lined up between now and mid-August. If June was about testing the waters, July could define whether sentiment has truly shifted.

GemLife Communities Group (ASX: GLF) – 3 July

GemLife’s IPO is one of the most anticipated REIT-style listings of the year. Positioned in the retirement-living sector (ASX: GLF), it targets the growing senior demographic seeking lifestyle communities, combining residential independence with integrated amenities. With the RBA tipped to reduce the cash rate in July and again in August, we believe this timing is near perfect.

Falling rates will enhance the company’s appeal by lowering its funding costs and boosting net yields. For SMSFs and income investors chasing stable distributions in a low-rate world, the structure offered by (ASX: GLF) could be compelling. If priced right, this could be one of the more successful yield-oriented IPOs this year.

Stepchange (ASX: STR) & Tali Resources (ASX: TR1) – 10 July

Two contrasting stories emerge on this date.

Stepchange (ASX: STR) is expected to bring a fintech or credit-oriented narrative, possibly offering yield via structured credit or income-linked notes. If (ASX: STR) indeed targets out-of-cycle credit opportunities, such as SME lending or alternative fixed-income, it may benefit from the same tailwinds that supported La Trobe’s IPO in June. A high-yield premium over the falling cash rate could make it a portfolio diversifier for conservative investors.

On the other hand, Tali Resources (ASX: TR1) is a speculative play, focusing on battery metals, namely nickel and cobalt. These are critical to electric vehicle supply chains, and investor interest in this thematic has been reignited by continued investment in renewables and battery storage infrastructure. However, as with all early-stage explorers, much will hinge on project economics, drill results, and whether it can secure strategic offtake partners or JV interest.

 

Ballard Mining (ASX: BM1) – 14 July

Ballard (ASX: BM1) is a copper-focused explorer with near-term drill programs. With copper trading around US$9,700 per tonne, driven by tight global inventories and rising demand from grid infrastructure, (ASX: BM1) could be well-timed. That said, market interest will depend heavily on its exploration program schedule, funding roadmap, and leadership team.

We believe (ASX: BM1) will appeal to risk-tolerant investors seeking leveraged exposure to the electrification trend. But success won’t be guaranteed. Investors should look closely at prospect geology, board experience, and whether pre-listing investors are retaining meaningful skin in the game.

 

Everlast Minerals (ASX: EV8) – 15 August

Coming in August, Everlast Minerals (ASX: EV8) is a late-stage exploration play likely focused on lithium or copper. Timing will be everything. By mid-August, we’ll have a clearer sense of RBA policy, broader market sentiment, and commodity price direction. If Everlast comes to market with strong technical studies, proven reserves, and near-term development plans, it could resonate.

However, if commodity prices slide or equity markets turn cautious again, (ASX: EV8) may face an uphill climb. Investors should scrutinise cash burn, project economics, and capex assumptions before considering an entry.

 

Why Falling Rates Matter for IPOs

Rate cuts are not just an economic footnote; they’re a structural catalyst for IPO activity.

Lower capital costs enable companies, especially in infrastructure, property, and credit, to float with stronger balance sheets. With bank debt cheaper and cap rates compressing, earnings forecasts for yield-heavy IPOs start to look more attractive.

Yield reallocation is another powerful force. As term deposit rates sink and bond yields soften, SMSFs and retirees begin looking elsewhere for returns. That “elsewhere” is increasingly IPOs with defined yield structures, like La Trobe (ASX: LF1), and potentially GemLife (ASX: GLF) and Stepchange (ASX: STR).

There’s also a clear sentiment shift. After a sluggish Q1, the solid listings in June helped wash away doubts about the viability of the IPO market in 2025. If (ASX: GLF) and (ASX: STR) perform well out of the gate, that confidence loop could intensify.

And finally, commodity tailwinds shouldn’t be underestimated. Lower rates support emerging market demand for infrastructure and electrification, which, in turn, pushes demand for copper, lithium, and rare earths, feeding into IPOs like (ASX: BM1), (ASX: TR1), and (ASX: EV8).

 

Watchpoints & Risks

• Despite these tailwinds, we would caution investors to stay sharp. Several risk factors could still stall or derail the IPO momentum.
• Inflation volatility is front of mind. The June quarterly CPI, due in a few weeks, will be critical. If inflation surprises to the upside, the RBA may delay or temper further easing, choking off a key support for IPO markets.
• Execution challenges remain a major concern. IPOs without private equity sponsorship, experienced underwriters, or a clear value proposition risk flopping. Investors should watch the bookrunners closely and ask: who’s backing this story?
• Commodity exposure, while potentially lucrative, is volatile. Copper and lithium prices are still highly sensitive to Chinese demand and global growth fears. Juniors like (ASX: BM1) and (ASX: EV8) need tangible progress, not just thematic relevance.
• Retail sentiment is also not fully repaired. While SMSF and institutional flows have picked up, general retail trading volumes remain below their 2021–2022 peaks. IPOs must articulate their case clearly, especially if they’re not backed by brand-name credibility.

 

How to Navigate Upcoming IPOs

In our view, July presents a selective opportunity, not a green light for every new float. Here’s how we think investors should navigate it:

Focus on yield-centric listings like (ASX: LF1), (ASX: GLF) and possibly (ASX: STR). These are best placed to benefit from falling rates and soft inflation, particularly for SMSFs and income investors.

Be highly selective with commodity-linked IPOs. (ASX: TR1), (ASX: BM1) and (ASX: EV8) may offer upside, but only if they’re well-capitalised, fully permitted, and deliver timely updates on exploration or development milestones.

Closely track early post-IPO flows. The first 3–5 trading sessions in (ASX: GLF) and (ASX: STR) will likely determine if the July IPO window remains open or shuts quickly. High-volume debuts with low volatility will be the tell.

Stick to structure over story. Institutional support, quality underwriting, and clear governance are far more important than thematic buzzwords or flashy marketing.

 

Conclusion

Australia’s IPO landscape is becoming more favourable, with inflation easing and the RBA expected to begin cutting the cash rate from July 2025. Lower rates typically boost equity demand by reducing funding costs and supporting valuations.

Recent listings like Virgin Australia (ASX: VGN), Greatland Resources (ASX: GGP), and La Trobe (ASX: LF1) Private Credit Fund have shown that well-structured IPOs with strong fundamentals can perform well in this environment. Upcoming floats such as GemLife (ASX: GLF), Stepchange (ASX: STR), and Ballard Mining (ASX: BM1) will help gauge whether this momentum can continue.

While monetary policy may support activity, IPO success will still depend on business quality, clear strategy, and solid execution. Investors are likely to favour listings offering income, growth potential, and strong governance.

 

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FAQs

• Will falling interest rates make all IPOs more successful?

  Not necessarily. While lower rates generally improve sentiment and liquidity, success still depends on a company’s fundamentals, structure, and execution. IPOs with strong earnings visibility, experienced management, and institutional support are more likely to benefit from a lower-rate environment.

• Are yield-focused IPOs safer investments in a falling rate cycle?

  They can be. IPOs like La Trobe’s (ASX: LF1) and GemLife (ASX: GLF) Communities offer income-generating structures that become more attractive when rates decline. However, investors should still assess credit risk, capital structure, and liquidity mechanisms before investing.

• What sectors are likely to benefit the most from RBA rate cuts in 2025?

  Sectors such as real estate investment trusts (REITs), private credit, infrastructure, and utilities often benefit first due to lower financing costs. Additionally, growth-stage companies and explorers may find it easier to raise capital or refinance.

• Should investors be cautious with junior mining IPOs like BM1 or EV8?

  Yes. While the thematic case for commodities like copper or lithium remains strong, junior miners are highly dependent on drilling success, funding access, and commodity price stability. Due diligence on resource quality, management, and cash burn is essential.

• How can I evaluate if an IPO is well-structured?

  Look for details on lead managers, cornerstone investors, use of proceeds, board composition, and governance. Strong pre-IPO backing from institutional investors or private equity typically signals more rigour in execution.