ASX IPOs in 2025: Winners, Losers, and What’s Next as Interest Rates Fall

After two slow years marked by rising interest rates and cautious markets, 2025 looks set to be a turning point for ASX IPOs. However, this isn’t simply a broad rebound. What we’re seeing is a more selective and strategic shift. Companies coming to market now are picking their moment carefully, looking to list in the right sectors, at the right time, and with the right backing.

With the Reserve Bank of Australia expected to start cutting rates in July, conditions are becoming more favourable. Lower rates usually bring more interest in growth and yield-focused stocks, and that could give IPO activity a much-needed boost in the second half of the year.

But it’s not that simple. Some recent listings have struggled, while others have taken off. That’s left many investors wondering: Are IPOs making a comeback, or is this just a short-lived reaction to falling rates?

 

Rate Cuts Ahead: What This Means for IPO Appetite

The RBA has made it increasingly clear that its battle with inflation is nearing a pause. May’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in at 2.1%, down sharply from 2.9% in February. More importantly, the RBA’s preferred trimmed mean inflation measure dropped to 2.4%, its lowest reading since 2021. This is significant, as it comfortably places inflation within the central bank’s 2–3% target range.

This sets a favourable backdrop for equity issuance, especially in rate-sensitive sectors like infrastructure, real estate, and yield-focused funds. Westpac, CBA, and NAB are all forecasting a 25-basis-point rate cut at the July 8 meeting, with the cash rate likely to move from 3.85% down to 3.60%. Another cut is widely expected in August, which would further reinforce investor confidence in long-duration equity plays.

However, not all banks are passing on the expected relief to borrowers. This dampens some of the stimulatory effects of monetary easing, especially for the retail and consumer sectors. For IPOs, that means a bifurcated market—some listings will ride the rate optimism, while others may struggle without clear catalysts.

 

Top IPOs That Gained Investor Support

Robex Resources (ASX: RXR) – Listed 5 June

Robex Resources (ASX: RXR), a West African gold producer dual-listed in Canada and now Australia, delivered a successful debut, raising $120 million at $3.11 per CDI. Its Kiniero Gold Project in Guinea attracted solid institutional support. Investors gravitated towards the company’s near-term production potential, with the first gold expected by the December quarter of 2025. In our view, (ASX: RXR) benefited from two key factors: rising gold prices amid global uncertainty and increased demand for resource plays with clear production timelines.

The stock closed well above its issue price on debut, with strong aftermarket support in the days following. It’s one of the few IPOs in 2025 to generate positive sentiment post-listing. This bodes well for other resource names, provided they have a clear path to cash flow.

Marimaca Copper (ASX: MC2) – Listed 2 April

Marimaca Copper (ASX: MC2), another dual-listed name, entered the ASX with a focus on its Chilean copper project. While its price action has been relatively flat since listing, we don’t view this as a failure. Copper prices globally have cooled from their April highs, and the stock is largely tracking macro sentiment around Chinese demand and global EV infrastructure rollouts. Investors still see copper as a long-term thematic, and (ASX: MC2) offers a liquid entry point into that thesis. It remains on our watchlist.

 

IPOs That Struggled After Listing

Virgin Australia (ASX: VGN) – Listed 24 June

Much was made of Virgin’s (ASX: VGN) long-awaited return to the ASX. However, after listing at a valuation north of $2.5 billion, the airline struggled to gain altitude in trading. Blame it on multiple compressions across the airline sector or investor fatigue after years of restructuring, but the bottom line is that Virgin’s (ASX: VGN) debut lacked the flair the brand is known for.

(ASX: VGN) closed below its offer price on day one and has traded in a tight, underwhelming range since. Investors appear unconvinced that a traditional airline, still battling cost pressures, oil price volatility, and thin margins, can deliver alpha in this environment. Rate cuts may offer some tailwind, but not enough to change the structural concerns in aviation.

VBX Ltd (ASX: VBX) – Listed 17 June

VBX Ltd (ASX: VBX) entered the ASX on 17 June 2025 with a technology-driven business model focused on digital transformation tools for enterprises. Despite launching in a favourable macro window just ahead of the anticipated rate cuts, investor reception was muted. The company raised $55 million but opened below its issue price and has since traded within a narrow band.

In our view, the lukewarm response stemmed from a combination of factors—limited brand recognition, a crowded tech IPO space, and cautious investor sentiment around pre-profit digital platforms. While VBX’s long-term growth narrative may hold potential, the market is currently prioritising cash flow visibility and proven scale. Until the company delivers clear operational milestones or client wins, its shares may continue to face headwinds.

Greatland Resources (ASX: GGP) – Listed 24 June

Greatland Resources (ASX: GGP), known for its gold-copper joint venture at Havieron with Newmont, faced tepid investor demand at listing. While its UK investors were already familiar with the name, ASX participants didn’t show the same enthusiasm. The issue here wasn’t the asset; it was the timing. Listing just as global growth worries were resurfacing and with precious metals consolidating, (ASX: GGP) struggled to generate momentum.

We believe this listing underscores the challenge facing exploration-heavy resource IPOs. Without near-term cash flow or operational de-risking, the market has little patience in a still-cautious macro setting.

 

How Funds and Infrastructure Listings Performed

Infragreen Group (ASX: IFN) – Listed 25 June

(ASX: IFN) sought to ride the ESG infrastructure trend, marketing itself as a green energy enabler. Unfortunately, the IPO failed to spark investor excitement. Trading volumes remain thin, and the price has drifted downward. Despite the structural appeal of green infrastructure, the float highlighted a familiar problem: too many ESG labels, and not enough detail.

Without visible yield or contracted revenue streams, investors viewed (ASX: IFN) as too speculative for an ESG basket play.

La Trobe Private Credit Fund (ASX: LF1) – Listed 27 June

(ASX: LF1) came to market offering a fixed-income product with a stated target yield north of 6%. While that sounds compelling, investors were wary of credit quality and the lack of transparency around loan originations. In a falling-rate environment, credit plays typically attract attention, but only if they’re backed by rock-solid underwriting.

So far, (ASX: LF1) hasn’t seen the kind of volume or valuation support we expected. We’re watching its next earnings report closely to gauge market sentiment.

 

Challenges for Small-Cap and Speculative IPOs

In a year where investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, small-cap IPOs, especially those in the exploration and pre-revenue biotech space, have struggled to capture sustained interest. We’re not talking about a lack of potential. We’re talking about market timing, risk tolerance, and the absence of near-term value triggers. In our view, speculative listings require more than just a good story in 2025; they need a clear roadmap to commercial outcomes.

LinQ Minerals (ASX: LNQ)

LinQ Minerals (ASX: LNQ) entered the ASX on 27 June with limited fanfare, aiming to leverage early-stage exploration assets in Western Australia. Despite the country’s rich mining history, the timing worked against it (ASX: LNQ). Investor appetite for grassroots explorers is notably thin unless the project comes with a strong drilling program or a credible joint venture partner.

Its post-listing performance has remained subdued. The company’s flagship project still lacks a definitive timeline for drill results, and without material news flow, investors have stayed on the sidelines. In a risk-off environment, early-stage miners are often the first to be ignored, unless they can show tangible progress or secure strategic backing.

Until we see a meaningful catalyst, such as a resource update, drilling breakthrough, or JV agreement, (ASX: LNQ) is likely to stay off most institutional radars. That doesn’t mean it’s without potential, but the market is pricing in execution risk.

Tetratherix (ASX: TTX)

Tetratherix (ASX: TTX) was listed on 30 June, positioning itself as a nanotech-focused biotech developing innovative cancer therapies. While the sector has historically delivered outsized returns for early investors, biotech IPOs in this climate face an uphill battle. (ASX: TTX)’s challenge? Raising capital and building investor trust without any revenue or late-stage clinical trials.

Retail participation has been minimal, and institutional investors remain cautious, especially given the speculative nature of the biotech pipeline. With limited commercial validation and no short-term catalysts on the horizon, the stock has drifted. In our view, the company’s story is one to revisit if it secures regulatory progress or signs a significant development partnership.

For now, investors seeking exposure to life sciences may prefer established names with stronger balance sheets and defined regulatory pathways.

 

Upcoming IPOs to Watch: What’s Next?

As interest rates edge lower and market liquidity improves, the second half of 2025 could deliver a healthier IPO environment. Several high-potential listings are lined up over July and August. While not all will succeed, some are aligned with macro themes that could gain traction under a falling-rate regime.

GemLife Communities Group (ASX: GLF) – Listing 3 July

(ASX: GLF) is focused on developing and managing over-50s lifestyle communities, a niche segment that’s gaining momentum as Australia’s population ages. What makes this IPO compelling is its income-oriented model. In a falling-rate environment, income-generating assets like aged-care REITs become attractive substitutes for bonds.

We believe GLF could benefit from investor demand for stable, inflation-resistant returns. With superannuation funds and yield-focused portfolios on the hunt for alternative income plays, (ASX: GLF) could see robust demand, especially if it demonstrates solid occupancy metrics and forward yield guidance.

Stepchange (ASX: STR) – Listing 10 July

(ASX: STR) offers digital financial counselling and debt management solutions, a timely proposition as Australian households continue to grapple with mortgage pressure and rising cost-of-living concerns. As refinancing activity rises on the back of lower rates, Stepchange (ASX: STR) could find itself in a sweet spot.

That said, its success will depend on how well it can scale customer acquisition and convert traffic into paid users. Investors will want to see clear cost-efficiency metrics and evidence that the platform can monetise without burning excessive cash. If it ticks those boxes, it could outperform as a niche fintech.

Tali Resources (ASX: TR1) – Listing 10 July

A rare-earth and uranium explorer (ASX: TR1) is entering a politically charged and resource-sensitive space. Rare-earth elements are critical to defence, renewable energy, and advanced manufacturing. Uranium, on the other hand, is back in the spotlight as more countries embrace nuclear energy in their net-zero ambitions.

(ASX: TR1) Its appeal hinges on two key factors: geological potential and timing. If uranium prices continue climbing and China-US tensions boost rare-earth stockpiling, this listing could attract fast capital. On the flip side, without a clear discovery or partner, early volatility is likely.

We believe this IPO is speculative but timely, ideal for investors comfortable with high-risk/high-reward exposure.

Ballard Mining (ASX: BM1) – Listing 14 July

(ASX: BM1) is tapping into the battery-metals narrative, with assets targeting lithium, nickel, and cobalt, metals essential for electric vehicles and renewable grid storage. If the broader energy transition story regains steam in Q3, (ASX: BM1) could emerge as a sector favourite.

However, success will depend on both commodity price sentiment and early exploration results. Investors should look for credible leadership, defined drilling plans, and offtake discussions as validation signals. Without those, the stock risks joining the list of underwhelming small-cap miners.

That said, we’re not ruling it out. The structural story remains intact, and rate cuts may provide the tailwind needed to re-rate undervalued battery-metal explorers.

Everlast Minerals (ASX: EV8) – Listing 15 August

Scheduled for mid-August, Everlast Minerals (ASX: EV8) brings a slightly more mature profile to the exploration space. With drill results already in hand and more on the way, (ASX: EV8) has a better shot at attracting investors hungry for near-term catalysts.

Its project portfolio includes copper and gold, two commodities with asymmetric upside in a falling-rate, weak-dollar environment. Copper, in particular, remains tightly supplied globally, and any positive assay results could trigger a rerating.

We’re not saying (ASX: EV8) is a sure thing, but compared to some other upcoming floats, it’s arguably better positioned with existing momentum and sector relevance.

 

IPOs and the Rate Cut Cycle: A Double-Edged Sword

What happens when the RBA cuts? In theory, valuations for growth and yield-sensitive assets expand, making IPOs more attractive. In practice, it’s more nuanced.

If rate cuts are driven by slowing growth, investor risk appetite might remain muted. That’s what we’re seeing now: investors are cautiously optimistic but still choosy. Companies without clear revenue or asset backing will struggle regardless of the macro.

We believe the second half of 2025 could mark a turning point. With two or more cuts likely by October, liquidity could return to the small-cap end of the ASX. But only select IPOs will benefit—those that are thematically aligned, operationally sound, and priced fairly.

 

Conclusion: A Tale of Two IPO Markets

So far, 2025 has delivered a classic bifurcated market. On one side, we’ve seen solid execution and aftermarket support for names like Robex Resources (ASX: RXR) and Marimaca Copper (ASX: MC2). On the other hand, speculative or overvalued floats like Virgin (ASX: VGN) and (ASX: GGP) have floundered.

As we look ahead, we’re watching:

Defensive plays with yield (ASX: GLF, ASX: LF1)

Resource IPOs with defined near-term catalysts (ASX: BM1, ASX: TR1)

Sectors tied to refinancing and ESG transition

The key is selectivity. We’re not talking about buying every float; we’re talking about evaluating each company on merit, macro alignment, and execution capability.

In our view, the smart investor in 2025 isn’t chasing the IPO wave. They’re riding the right part of the curve.

 

What are the Best ASX Stocks to invest in right now?

Check our buy/sell tips

 

FAQs

• Are ASX IPOs in 2025 performing better than last year?

  So far, it’s a mixed bag. While some IPOs like Robex Resources (ASX: RXR) and Marimaca Copper (ASX: MC2) have delivered strong debuts, others, such as Virgin Australia (ASX: VGN) and several early-stage miners, have underperformed. Overall, sentiment is improving, but investor caution remains, particularly around speculative or pre-revenue listings.

• Will falling interest rates improve IPO performance in the second half of 2025?

  We believe so. As the RBA begins its rate-cutting cycle, lower borrowing costs and stronger equity risk appetite could help future IPOs gain momentum, especially those in yield-sensitive sectors like aged care, property, and infrastructure.

• What types of IPOs are doing well this year?

  Resource companies with near-term cash flow, like Robex Resources (ASX: RXR), and income-oriented plays such as property funds, are showing relative strength. Investors are favouring names with clear operational milestones, strong balance sheets, and exposure to secular growth themes.

• Why are some IPOs like Virgin Australia (ASX: VGN) underperforming?

  Virgin (ASX: VGN) was listed with high expectations, but structural challenges in the aviation sector, thin margins, fuel cost volatility, and ongoing debt dampened enthusiasm. The stock’s performance reflects investor concerns about business model sustainability rather than just market conditions.

• Should I invest in upcoming IPOs like GemLife (ASX: GLF) or Stepchange (ASX: STR)?

  That depends on your risk profile. GemLife (ASX: GLF) offers a yield-focused REIT structure, which may appeal in a low-rate environment. Stepchange (ASX: STR) is more speculative, relying on fintech execution. We suggest reviewing each IPO’s fundamentals, sector exposure, and prospectus carefully before committing capital.