KEY POINTS
- Monash IVF (ASX: MVF) cut its FY26 profit forecast again, to between A$17 million and A$18 million, as fewer Australians start IVF.
- The shares actually rose on the news (up 2.24% to A$0.68), a sign the bad news was already expected.
- A A$0.90 takeover bid from the Soul Patts and Genesis Capital consortium was knocked back in April, so the support it gave the price has faded.
- It looks cheap, but we see a slow, patient value play, not a quick bounce.
Monash IVF (ASX:MVF) lowered its profit forecast again on Friday, yet the shares did not fall. They rose 2.24% to A$0.68. The company now expects to earn between A$17 million and A$18 million this year, down from A$27.4 million last year, because fewer Australians are starting IVF treatment. The calm reaction tells you most investors had already braced for weak numbers.
Why did Monash IVF downgrade its profit again?
The slowdown is industry-wide, not just a Monash problem. Demand for IVF in Australia keeps shrinking, with treatment volumes falling over recent months. Because clinics carry high fixed costs, even a small drop in patient numbers takes a big bite out of profit. The new forecast sits well below the A$20 million the market had expected.
There are a few bright spots. Monash is winning back a little market share, its overseas business is growing, and cost savings should help next year. But none of that fixes the near-term problem, and earnings are still sliding.
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Is Monash IVF (ASX:MVF) a buy after the downgrade?
On value alone, the stock looks cheap. In April, the board knocked back a A$0.90-per-share takeover offer from a Genesis Capital and Soul Patts consortium, arguing it undervalued the company. At A$0.68, you can buy the business well below what a serious bidder was willing to pay in April. The long-term story is solid, too, as people start families later in life, keeping demand for fertility services growing.
The problem is timing. A low price needs a reason to recover, and the clearest one has gone. The consortium said A$0.90 was its best price unless a rival bidder appeared, so there is no live deal now. A soft market and a new CEO, still early in her turnaround, leave little to lift the shares soon.
In our view, this suits patient investors with a two-to-three-year horizon, not anyone chasing a fast rebound. The smarter move may be to wait for clear signs that IVF demand has stopped falling, or a fresh bidder, before buying. Monash IVF is cheap for good reasons, and another downgrade cannot be ruled out while demand keeps falling.
