Origin Energy (ASX: ORG)Share Price and News

About Origin Energy

Origin Energy is one of Australia’s leading energy companies, providing electricity, gas, and renewable energy solutions to residential, business, and industrial customers. Origin operates across multiple segments, including energy retailing, exploration and production, and power generation, making it a key player in Australia’s energy sector.

It is well known for its commitment to sustainability, with increasing investments in solar, wind, and battery storage technology. The company also maintains a global footprint with interests in gas fields, predominantly in Australia and New Zealand, contributing to its diversified revenue base. Origin’s innovative approach positions it uniquely in the competitive Australian energy market.

Origin Energy's History

Origin Energy was established in 2000 as a result of the demerger of Boral Limited’s energy division. The company’s growth accelerated through a series of strategic acquisitions. The two defining strategic bets of Origin's modern era were both made in Queensland.

In 2008, the company commercialised its coal seam gas assets through a multibillion-dollar joint venture named Australia Pacific LNG, partnering with ConocoPhillips and Sinopec to build one of the world's largest LNG export facilities on Curtis Island near Gladstone. APLNG commenced LNG production in 2015 and has been the cornerstone of Origin's earnings ever since. In 2013, Origin acquired Eraring Energy, giving it ownership of Australia's largest coal-fired power station and cementing its position as the country's dominant integrated energy retailer and generator.

More recently, the company made two bets on the energy transition that now define its future. In 2020, Origin acquired a 20% interest in UK-based Octopus Energy and an Australian licence for the Kraken customer platform, a technology-forward retail operating system that has since been deployed across Origin's own customer base of 4.5 million accounts. And in late 2023, Origin successfully rebuffed a A$20 billion privatisation bid led by Brookfield and EIG, a landmark moment that reset shareholder expectations and accelerated management's own transition agenda.

Origin Energy's (ASX: ORG) Future Outlook

Origin's 1H26 results, released in February 2026, told two quite different stories running in parallel. The company reported a statutory profit of A$557m and underlying profit of A$593m, with underlying EBITDA of A$1,589m and adjusted free cash flow rising A$187m to A$705m.

On the surface that looks like a decline — underlying EBITDA was A$1,926m in the prior corresponding period but the comparison is heavily distorted by exceptional LNG trading gains in the first half of FY25 that were always flagged as non-recurring. Strip those out and the underlying trajectory is one of solid, improving operational momentum.

The headline news was an upgrade to full-year guidance. Energy Markets underlying EBITDA guidance was raised to A$1,550–$1,750m, up from the prior guidance of A$1,400–$1,700m, driven by stronger-than-expected electricity performance.

The division delivered electricity gross profit growth of A$102m to A$840m, strong customer growth of 96,000 new accounts against market average churn of 22.4% compared to Origin's 14.7%, and A$32m of cost-to-serve savings in the half tracking to the mid-point of the targeted A$100–$150 m total savings by year-end.

On batteries, Origin brought Eraring battery stage one online in December 2025, on time and on budget, while committing a further A$80 million to expand Eraring Stage Two to nearly six hours of storage, with a 1.7 GW / 6.3 GWh storage program underway. The interim dividend was maintained at a fully franked 30 cents per share, and APLNG distributed A$542m to Origin during the period.

Is ORG a Good Stock to Buy?

Origin Energy sits at a genuinely fascinating intersection of the old energy economy and the new one, and the investment case reflects that complexity. It is not a clean renewables play, not a pure LNG story, and not a regulated utility — it is all three simultaneously, which makes it difficult to value precisely but also means it carries diversification that most peers lack.

The near-term earnings driver is straightforward. Energy Markets is operating well above expectations, the Kraken platform is demonstrably improving customer retention — Origin's churn of 14.7% compares favourably to the market average of 22.4% — and the battery storage program is being delivered on time and on budget at post-tax return targets management describes as 8–11%, skewing toward the upper end in early asset life. These are genuinely attractive economics for regulated-style infrastructure capital.

The Octopus Energy stake is the long-term optionality piece that is hardest to price. The Octopus segment recorded an EBITDA loss of A$89m for the half, attributable to seasonality, UK regulatory costs, and accelerated investment in non-UK retail expansion, a short-term drag that conceals what is now a globally significant energy technology business. Origin has already crystallised meaningful value through secondary sales of its Octopus stake and continues to hold a 20% position in a company being valued by global infrastructure investors at multiples that dwarf what Origin's own market capitalisation implies.

The company reported revenue of approximately A$17.2bn and statutory profit of A$1.48bn for FY25, and the balance sheet is disciplined at 2x net debt to underlying EBITDA. At current prices, Origin trades at a modest premium to regulated utilities but a meaningful discount to the sum-of-parts value that its Energy Markets, APLNG, and Octopus interests could command separately, an asymmetry that continues to attract institutional attention and keeps the privatisation conversation quietly alive.