29Metals (ASX:29M): How did $2bn of investors money shrink to $600m?

29Metals (ASX:29M) listed in 2021 with a capitalisation of $2bn and is now capped at under $600m. The question we are exploring in this article is: How did this happen?

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Overview of 29Metals (ASX:29M)

29Metals has 2 key assets. Firstly, Golden Grove near the Mt Magnet mine in WA. Golden Grove is a producing mine that the company owns 100% of. It has mineral resources of 53.8Mt at 1.7% copper, 4.2% zinc, 0.7g/t gold and 30g/t silver.

In 2024, it produced 22kt copper, 57kt zinc and 21koz gold. For 2025, it guided to 22-25kt copper, 60-70kt zinc, 750-1,000koz silver and 20-25koz gold. This has not eventuated, more on that shortly, although there has been hope that two new grade ore sources would begin feeding the mill in the next 12 months.

Then there’s Capricorn Copper in western Queensland (near Mt Isa), which is currently suspended (due to an extreme weather event in 2023 – more on that shortly). It is prospective for gold and silver and has Mineral Resources of 64.3Mt @ 1.8% copper and 9g/t silver.

The end of 29Metals’ September 2025 investor presentation lists as reasons to invest in the company as large copper endowments, long-life assets, a low-risk jurisdiction, organic growth options and exploration upside. But of course, the company told investors at its IPO there was upside and there’s been mostly downside. Where did it go wrong?

Operational pressures

That’s the answer above. If you look at 29Metals’ share price chart, you’ll notice sharp declines in June 2022 and in the entire first half of 2023. It is hard to identify a specific catalyst in June 2022, but we already mentioned extreme weather in 2023 – bad enough to shut down Capricorn altogether.

In March 2023, there was 500nm rain over 5 days. Extreme anywhere, but particularly an area that doesn’t see a lot of rain. It was the highest five-day total ever recorded. Production has been suspended ever since and the company took a 9-figure non-cash impairment charge. Having raised $527.8m at $2 per share at its IPO, 29Metals raised $180m in August 2023 at $0.69 per share and $180m in December 2024 at $0.27 per share.

All miners face cyclical headwinds (i.e. commodity prices and investor sentiment), the company appears to have had a number of hits at once including from company-specific issues, which amplifies the negative reaction. Even gold miners can go down in this market if there are specific operational problems, just ask Bellevue (ASX:BGL).

A better future?

Since April 2025, 29Metals shares have rallied somewhat – from 11c to a peak of 55c in September. The company now has a better idea when Capricorn can resume (next year) and can see upside from Golden Grove. Moreover, investors are becoming increasingly aware of the importance of copper and how 29Metals could play a key role in Australian supply.

However, investors were turned off by a mid-October announcement where it cut its production guidance significantly. Silver production was cut from 750-1,000koz to 700-900koz; gold production was cut from 20-25koz to 15-20koz; zinc production was cut from 60-70kt to 35-40kt.

Copper guidance was maintained, but investors took little consolation because zinc production was just 2kt for the quarter, driven by seismic activity at the Xantho Extended orebody that restricted access to high-grade zinc stopes.

Come back Zinc!
by inTheSimpsons

Conclusion: Investor confidence is shot

Given 29Metals has had a history of operational setbacks (including weather issues at its other asset, Capricorn Copper Mine) the market may have less tolerance for surprises. The company is only 12.8x P/E and 3.6x EV/EBITDA for FY26…but you get what you pay for. Although analysts expect a jump in revenue from $553.1m to $649m in FY26, they expect the bottom line to be wafer-thin at just $0.02 per share and a target price of $0.34.

We know it is far easier to kick a company when it is down than to have confidence in the future – and investors who make a bet on a comeback and are proven right can make a lot of money. But 29Metals is not a Medibank Private that had a one-off incident that could’ve happened to any company, but still had its investment thesis in track. 29Metals is a company that has left investors disappointed several times before, and we would prefer to see any evidence that things are getting better rather than just assuming bullet points in an investor presentation will come true.