4DMedical’s Growth Story Gains Airflow in the US Market

4DMedical Finds Its Rhythm

4DMedical (ASX:4DX) climbed 9% today as the company continues to build strong commercial momentum with its CT:VQ lung imaging technology. Following FDA clearance in September, 4DMedical’s entry into the US market is beginning to gain real traction. The latest partnership with the University of Miami adds another major institution to its growing network, joining Stanford as the second US university to adopt its ventilation scanning technology.

4DMedical’s pay-per-scan software-as-a-service structure carries gross margins near 90%, giving it significant operating leverage as scan volumes scale. Each new institutional partnership effectively becomes a recurring revenue stream, and with early adoption now spreading through major medical networks, the commercial inflection point looks increasingly credible. While still in its early stages, this rollout reinforces why we see 4DMedical as one of the few ASX medtechs with a pathway toward high-margin, global scalability.

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4DMedical Strengthens North American Push with US$10M Philips Deal

Earlier, 4DMedical announced a major partnership with Philips, marking its formal entry into the North American market. This deal adds CT:VQ to Philips’ product catalogue under a two-year, minimum-order agreement worth roughly US$10 million. It is a strong commercial validation that accelerates adoption across the US hospital network.

The new partnership with Stanford University, combined with the University of Miami collaboration, builds further momentum, supporting approximately 20,000 scans per year and laying the groundwork for profitability toward late 2026 or early 2027. Collectively, the company’s major partnerships, including Stanford, AstraZeneca, and Lehey, account for around 92,000 scans annually.

The quarterly update

As of 30 September 2025, 4DMedical operated at 409 sites globally, up 51% year on year, producing 74,345 scans in Q1 FY26, up 106%. This implies annualised scan volumes could surpass 300,000, with revenue scaling efficiently under the company’s software-as-a-service model. These partnerships not only validate the clinical advantages of CT:VQ but also position 4DMedical to capture share from the more than 1 million annual US nuclear VQ scans.

Philips’ distribution reach should accelerate this adoption curve, while university collaborations help generate valuable clinical data. The business model remains highly attractive, with most costs tied to staffing and administration, while research and development spending is expected to remain high but steady as the company continues to scale.

Should You Buy 4DX?

For shareholders, these contract wins give 4DMedical much clearer revenue visibility, which makes forecasting far easier and brings the pathway to profitability into view. With a strong cash position of roughly A$33 million, the company can continue funding growth without needing dilution. In our view, profitability in FY27 is still achievable if scan volumes ramp toward full capacity. If that happens, the current quarterly revenue of about A$1.4 million has room to multiply meaningfully over the coming years.

Across the three analysts that cover the stock, the average price target sits around A$2.30, which implies roughly 10 to 20% upside. That said, investors still need to acknowledge the high cash burn and execution risks that come with scaling a new medical technology. This is a high quality business with a real commercial foothold, but with less compelling upside at current levels. It feels more like a company to keep firmly on the watchlist and look for a cleaner entry point once adoption broadens and the revenue trajectory becomes more predictable.