Nova Eye Medical (ASX:EYE) has been on a strong run, up 50% in one month. Is there more upside?

Nova Eye Medical (ASX:EYE) is no clinical stage medtech company, but has just an exciting 12 months ahead as if it was a clinical stage company with company-making catalysts ahead.

Because even though it has commercialised its devices, a major 12 months are ahead during which it is expected to make major inroads in the US and China. Moreover, since Opthea’s failure, Nova Eye Medical has been the only way for ASX investors to gain exposure to optometry. But is it worth considering?

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Who is Nova Eye Medical?

Nova Eye Medical, formerly known as Ellex, has been listed since 1987. It remains headquartered in Adelaide but has its US base in Fremont, California which on the Eastern side of the San Francisco Bay. A big change came in 2020 when it divested its Ellex Laser and Ultrasound business, changed its name to Nova Eye Medical and buckled down to focus on Glaucoma.

Glaucoma is a group of diseases in which elevated pressure inside the eye (intraocular pressure, or IOP) damages the optic nerve and impairs drainage of aqueous humour, leading to progressive and potentially irreversible vision loss. Aqueous humour is a fluid that maintains the intraocular pressure and inflates the globe of the eye – it is good in moderation, but not if it cannot be drained where needed.

Traditional treatment options include a surgical procedure known as a trabeculectomy which creates a new drainage path, and another known as a canaloplasty which is performed from outside the eye. You can see surgery is difficult and so there is a desire for better options.

There are some medications that may be able to eliminate the need for surgery, but adherence is poor. There are 131m people with glaucome worldwide and they spend US$5.7bn in treatment options.

iTrack’s specialty is that it can improve the outflow without any implants or tissue removal. It does this by navigating a microcatheter through the entire 360 degrees of an eye’s Schlemm’s canal (in a single ‘pass’) and it delivers a viscoelastic (i.e. a gel-like solution) under pressure to dilate the canal and collector channels. Moreover, the device also provides real-time visibility via a built-in fiber-optic light at the tip of the eye.

A big FY25 with more to come in FY26

In July 2025, the company announced A$28.8m in revenue for FY25 which was in line with guidance and a company record. More than 75% of its sales came from the USA, and sales were up 23% from the prior corresponding period. It made a $12.8m gross profit and $3.4m negative EBITDA.

You can see the company is not yet profitable, but it is getting close. It made a 70% gross margin in FY25 and a modest EBITDA loss. But cash flows from operations are improving and it has $5.1m cash on hand. It expects A$32-37m in sales for FY24 and to reach ‘breakeven EBITDA’ in the first half of FY26.

How does it expect to achieve this? Growth in US and China. The company already sells its original iTrack device in China, but hopes to gain approval for a new version by the end of 2025. It is estimated that there are 3,638,000 cataract surgeries per year in China, representing a significant market opportunity.

Meanwhile in the US, Nova has been identified by investment bank Needham as the fastest growing MIGS (Minimally Invasive Glaucoma Surgery) company in the USA. It only has a 2.4% share now, but Needham anticipates a 3.4% market share in 12 months. This may not seem like much, but it is the USA that we are talking about.

Nova Eye Medical is an interesting prospect

Nova Eye Medical has positive momentum right now and is no pre-revenue company. While it needs to get its bottom line in order, we think it has a major opportunity in China in the next 12 months.