Uranium Prices Rebound: Which ASX Uranium Stocks Could Benefit if WA Lifts Its Mining Ban?

The uranium sector is once again drawing headlines. After years of mixed sentiment and price volatility, the uranium price rebound in 2025 has put the commodity back into investor conversations. On 22 August, spot uranium climbed to US$74.05 per pound, representing a gain of around 2% over the past month, according to Sprott and Trading Economics. Although prices remain roughly 10% lower than a year ago, this recovery highlights renewed resilience in the market.

For investors, the big question isn’t just about price. With nuclear energy gaining global momentum, pressure is mounting on Western Australia to revisit its long-standing uranium mining ban. If policy winds shift, several uranium ASX stocks could see significant upside. But which companies are best positioned, and what risks remain?

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Uranium Market Rebound: What’s Driving It?

The uranium price story over the past 12 months has been one of sharp swings followed by gradual recovery. In mid-March 2025, spot uranium hit a trough at around US$63.50/lb, sparking concerns that the sector might face another prolonged downturn. Yet by early June, prices had already bounced back to US$70–71/lb, with August figures showing continued strength above US$74/lb. This resilience has been underpinned by several factors: supply shortages, geopolitical instability, and growing policy support for nuclear energy.

At the same time, utilities have been slow to contract new supply, a pattern that typically builds up to periods of accelerated long-term contracting. Importantly, term contract prices, a more stable indicator than volatile spot prices, have remained firm around US$80/lb, suggesting utilities are willing to lock in higher levels to secure future supply. This signals growing confidence in nuclear energy’s role in global decarbonisation strategies, a trend that directly benefits uranium developers and producers.

The WA Uranium Ban: Why It Matters for Investors

Western Australia (WA) holds some of the largest undeveloped uranium deposits in the world. Yet since 2017, the state has maintained a ban on new uranium mining, leaving four previously approved projects: Toro Energy’s Lake Maitland, Vimy Resources’ Mulga Rock, Cameco’s Yeelirrie, and Wiluna.

The ban has long been criticised by industry stakeholders, who argue that it lacks a sound economic, scientific, or technical rationale. With nuclear energy gaining recognition globally, critics say WA’s policy is outdated and denies the state billions in potential investment, jobs, and export revenue.

Importantly, public sentiment appears to be shifting. A recent poll found that 57% of West Australians now support lifting the uranium mining ban (World Nuclear News). Support has also been growing within business and political circles, with nuclear energy increasingly discussed in the context of Australia’s energy transition and the AUKUS submarine program. The political calculus may be changing, and while no policy shift is guaranteed, the probability of a review appears higher than at any point in the past decade.

Why does this matter for investors? Quite simply, WA’s uranium projects represent some of the most advanced yet untapped assets on the ASX. If the ban were lifted, several companies could see immediate re-ratings, particularly those holding shovel-ready projects with positive feasibility studies.

ASX Uranium Stocks to Watch

Toro Energy (ASX: TOE)

Toro Energy (ASX: TOE) uranium projects are among the clearest beneficiaries if WA reverses course. The company’s flagship Lake Maitland project recently saw a notable improvement in economics. Updated studies increased its net present value (NPV) by A$75 million, bringing the total to A$908 million. Even more striking, the payback period has been shortened to just 18 months, an exceptionally quick return for a resource development project.

For investors, this matters because it indicates that Toro’s project could be highly profitable even at current uranium prices. If spot prices were to climb further above US$75/lb and term contracts push higher, the project’s economics could strengthen even more. The company has maintained optionality by keeping the asset in a state of readiness, allowing it to potentially move quickly should approvals be granted. Toro’s leverage to both price and policy makes it a speculative but intriguing play on WA uranium.

Vimy Resources (ASX: VMY)

Another standout name is Vimy Resources (ASX: VMY), Mulga Rock project. Mulga Rock is one of the largest undeveloped uranium deposits in WA and has long been recognised for its scale and strategic importance. Located 240 kilometres east of Kalgoorlie, Mulga Rock holds the potential to become a cornerstone uranium mine if developed.

The challenge has always been policy. Despite being one of the four projects that had prior approval, development was stalled by the ban. Vimy has kept the project on hold, but the fundamentals remain intact. In our view, the combination of resource size, location, and historical approvals means Mulga Rock could attract investor capital quickly if WA’s policy environment shifts. Investors should note, however, that development costs would be significant, requiring strong uranium prices and potential partnerships or financing arrangements. Nonetheless, the project’s sheer scale gives Vimy a unique position in the uranium landscape.

Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN)

While not as directly exposed to WA policy, Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) remains one of the most prominent uranium ASX stocks. Headquartered in Perth, Paladin has built its production base overseas, particularly in Namibia, where its Langer Heinrich mine is one of the largest operations outside of Kazakhstan and Canada. More recently, the company expanded its global footprint with the acquisition of Canada’s Fission Uranium in a C$1.5 billion deal.

This acquisition gives Paladin exposure to Canada’s Athabasca Basin, one of the world’s richest uranium regions, and provides diversification away from WA’s uncertain policy climate. Still, Paladin’s WA presence means that any local policy change could enhance its optionality. It suggests that Paladin’s investment case today rests more on its diversified global exposure, strong balance sheet, and position as one of the few near-term producers. For investors seeking a mix of stability and leverage to uranium, Paladin offers a relatively lower-risk entry compared to early-stage WA developers.

Risks Investors Must Bear in Mind

While the investment case for uranium is strengthening, it is not without significant risks.

Firstly, uranium prices remain volatile. Although spot prices have rebounded above US$74/lb, they are still ~10% below last year’s levels and well off the highs of early 2024. A renewed downturn could once again threaten the economics of marginal projects.

Secondly, policy uncertainty remains the biggest hurdle in WA. Even with polls showing majority support for lifting the ban, political processes are slow, and regulatory reviews could take years. Investors should be cautious about assuming an imminent reversal.

Thirdly, development risks are substantial. Projects like Lake Maitland and Mulga Rock would require hundreds of millions in capital investment, environmental approvals, and years of construction before first production. Delays and cost overruns are common in the resources sector, and uranium projects carry additional scrutiny due to radiation safety and export regulations.

Finally, demand growth depends not only on government commitments but also on actual reactor builds and restarts. While announcements about nuclear energy have been plentiful, converting those into real, operational reactors remains a slow process. For investors, this means uranium remains a high-beta sector, capable of delivering outsized gains but also steep losses.

Investor Takeaway

The uranium price rebound has re-energised a sector that had lost momentum earlier this year. For Australia, the bigger story lies in Western Australia’s uranium mining ban. With sentiment shifting and economic arguments growing stronger, the possibility of a policy change can no longer be dismissed. If the WA government lifts its uranium mining ban, projects such as Toro Energy uranium and Vimy Resources Mulga Rock could move rapidly toward development, potentially transforming their valuations.

Paladin Energy, while less dependent on WA, offers diversified exposure and could benefit indirectly. The bullish case for uranium ASX stocks rests on two pillars: sustained higher prices and regulatory reform. The cautious perspective is that without policy change, WA projects remain speculative, and uranium prices could yet face another correction.

For investors, the sector offers both risk and reward. The opportunity is clear: uranium is central to the global energy transition, and Australia holds some of the world’s richest undeveloped deposits. But timing and policy will determine outcomes. For now, uranium remains a speculative sector, one that rewards patience but demands caution.

FAQs

• Why are uranium prices rebounding now?

  Prices have risen from March lows due to supply tightness, renewed utility contracting, and geopolitical tensions. Spot uranium recently reached US$74.05/lb, with term contracts steady near US$80.

• What is the WA uranium mining ban?

  Western Australia banned uranium mining in 2017, though four projects approved prior remain on hold. The policy has come under pressure, with over half of WA residents now supporting a reversal.

• Which ASX stocks could benefit most if the ban is lifted?

  Toro Energy and Vimy Resources are the clearest beneficiaries, with projects directly in WA. Paladin Energy may gain indirectly, though its focus is international.

• Is uranium investment high risk?

  Yes. Uranium prices are volatile, projects require heavy capital, and policy uncertainty is high. Investors should treat it as a speculative sector.

• How does global nuclear policy affect ASX uranium stocks?

  Global support for nuclear energy, such as the AUKUS submarine deal and net-zero plan, can boost uranium demand expectations, supporting ASX-listed uranium developers and producers.