Finder Energy Surprisingly Soars 300% on Timor Sea Oil Ambitions

Finder Energy KTJ Bet: Transformative Oil Story or Speculative Surge?

Finder Energy (ASX:FDR) has been one of the most talked about stocks on the ASX this month, surging more than 300 percent as investors rush to price in the potential of its Timor Sea oil project. The latest catalyst came today, with a binding farm-in agreement that increases Timor GAP’s stake in the KTJ Project, strengthening the national partnership and signalling greater government backing.

At the heart of Finder Energy story are the Kuda Tasi and Jahal fields, which together hold an estimated 22 million barrels of contingent resources. With production targeted for 2027, the project is still in the concept select phase, but the speed of recent developments has placed Finder in the spotlight. For retail investors, the excitement lies in whether this momentum represents the early stages of a transformative energy story or the kind of speculative run that demands caution. But it seems the market is optimistic. 

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Finder Retains 66% Control as Timor GAP Commits to Half of Development Capex

This partnership is directly aligned with Finder Energy strategy to fast-track the development of the Kuda Tasi and Jahal (KTJ) oil fields, with a Final Investment Decision (FID) targeted by mid-2026. The KTJ Project has the potential to become a transformative asset for Finder, marking its first producing oil project and establishing a foundation for long-life production and sustained cash flow generation. 

Under the agreement, Timor GAP will fund 50 percent of development capital expenditure, up to a gross cap of USD 338 million (approximately AUD 520 million), while Finder retains a controlling 66 percent interest and operatorship of the project. This structure provides significant financial support while allowing Finder to maintain strategic control.

The Investor’s Takeaway

We see several key catalysts for investors to monitor, but it is important to note the risks that offshore oil projects carry. Cost inflation and supply chain constraints can delay milestones and increase expenditure, even in what appears to be a balanced macro environment today. These factors can shift quickly. 

While Timor GAP’s funding commitment is substantial, Finder must still secure additional debt and/or equity to cover the remaining development capital. That said, the KTJ Project farmin agreement materially de-risks Finder’s position, strengthens the funding pathway, and sends a clear signal of confidence in the resource base. Collectively, this accelerates the company’s trajectory toward first oil and enhances visibility on potential long-term cash flow generation.