Gold Hits $3,865 Record High: Which ASX Gold Stocks Are the Real Winners?
Ujjwal Maheshwari, October 4, 2025
Gold’s meteoric rise to a record-breaking $3,865 per ounce (approximately AU$6,000) has stunned the markets, with an impressive 46.7% year-over-year surge. This all-time high, achieved on October 1, 2025, has made headlines across the financial world. Gold, traditionally viewed as a safe haven during times of global instability, has reached new heights, attracting investors seeking a store of value amidst economic uncertainty.
However, even as gold prices continue to soar, ASX-listed gold stocks have significantly underperformed compared to the record-high gold price. The S&P/ASX All Ords Gold Index has gained approximately 96% YTD, a significant underperformance compared to the 45%+ increase in the price of gold itself. This valuation gap between gold and gold mining stocks presents a unique opportunity for investors to capitalise on an undervalued sector that is poised for a catch-up. As gold remains near its all-time highs, the question arises: which ASX gold stocks will benefit the most from this trend?
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Why is Gold Rallying?
Several factors have contributed to the dramatic rise in gold prices. The global economic climate, driven by inflation concerns, geopolitical instability, and uncertainty in traditional markets, has encouraged many investors to flock to gold as a safe haven. Additionally, gold is widely considered a hedge against inflation and currency debasement, which have been persistent issues in major global economies.
Another factor contributing to gold’s stellar performance is the weak Australian dollar. As gold is priced in US dollars, a decline in the AUD has amplified the gains for Australian gold producers, making gold mining even more profitable for them. The low value of the AUD has meant that when gold is priced in local currency, it becomes even more lucrative for Australian miners, increasing their revenues significantly without the corresponding rise in production costs.
With the US dollar’s volatility and concerns over global financial stability, gold has managed to sustain its position at near-record highs, with many analysts forecasting further gains. However, despite these strong fundamentals, ASX-listed gold stocks have underperformed, leaving significant upside potential for investors willing to look closely at the lagging companies.
Why Are ASX Gold Stocks Lagging Behind?
The underperformance of ASX gold stocks, despite gold’s impressive rally, can be attributed to several key factors. One of the primary reasons for this lag is investor scepticism. Many gold miners in the ASX have a history of operational failures, high costs, and debt accumulation, which have dampened investor confidence. In the past, these companies have faced issues such as cost overruns, project delays, and production cuts, all of which have affected their ability to capitalise on rising gold prices.
Investor Sentiment has been further impacted by the sector’s struggles with achieving operational efficiency and maintaining sustainable growth. This historical underperformance has made investors cautious, leading them to focus more on the gold price itself rather than the stocks of the companies that mine it.
Additionally, production costs have risen for many gold miners. While gold’s price has increased, so too have the costs associated with mining it. Labour costs, energy costs, and higher input prices have put pressure on margins for some miners. As such, even with the increasing gold prices, some companies are finding it difficult to translate that into significant earnings growth.
Finally, a key contributing factor is market uncertainty surrounding the future of gold’s price. Investors are wary of a gold price correction and are thus hesitant to dive into gold stocks despite the strong performance in gold. In short, while gold itself is surging, ASX gold stocks are struggling to catch up due to a combination of past underperformance, cost concerns, and market wariness.
Gold Stock Analysis: Top Performers and Undervalued Plays
With gold prices at record levels, investors are wondering which ASX-listed gold stocks have the potential to capitalise on the rally. Let’s explore some of the top-performing gold stocks and highlight some undervalued gems that could provide exceptional returns in the near future.
Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN)
Performance: +51% YTD
Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) has proven to be a standout performer in the ASX gold sector. With its operations in Queensland and New South Wales, the company has capitalised on the gold price surge, delivering a solid 51% increase YTD. Despite this strong performance, there is still significant upside potential.
Why It’s a Winner: Evolution Mining is a low-cost operator with a strong production base, and its focus on improving operational efficiency has made it a profitable gold miner. Its solid balance sheet, along with plans to increase production and reduce debt, positions it for continued growth. The company’s resilience in the face of rising costs and its strategic acquisitions will help it take full advantage of the high gold prices. Additionally, Evolution’s operations in both Australia and overseas provide it with diversification, reducing risks associated with reliance on any single location. As gold remains strong, Evolution Mining is poised for sustained profitability.
Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST)
Performance: $536M free cash flow, 1.6M oz production
Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST)has emerged as a leading player in the gold mining sector, with operations in both Australia and the United States. In 2025, Northern Star recorded a record $536 million free cash flow and produced 1.6 million ounces of gold. Despite these impressive metrics, the company’s stock has yet to fully catch up with gold’s price rally.
Why It’s a Winner: Northern Star has been focusing on low-cost, high-quality assets, which allows it to maintain strong margins even as production costs rise. The company’s free cash flow generation is exceptional, providing it with the flexibility to pay dividends and reinvest in growth. With a robust balance sheet and plans to further consolidate its position in the market, Northern Star is well-positioned to benefit from gold’s sustained strength. Furthermore, the recent $5 billion acquisition of De Grey Mining highlights Northern Star’s commitment to expansion, which should further drive future earnings growth.
Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM)
Performance: +63% YTD
As the world’s largest gold miner, Newmont Corporation has a diversified asset base, with operations in multiple regions, including North America, Australia, and Africa. Its YTD performance has been nothing short of impressive, with a 63% increase in stock price.
Why It’s a Winner: Newmont’s size and diversification allow it to weather market volatility better than smaller miners. With strong free cash flow and a history of dividend payouts, it appeals to investors seeking stability in the gold sector. The company is also well-positioned for future growth, with significant exploration potential and a commitment to improving operational efficiency. Newmont’s ability to maintain low production costs and strong margins will help it remain profitable even if gold prices experience a correction.
West African Resources (ASX: WAF)
Performance: Macquarie sees 40% upside to $3.30
West African Resources is one of the most promising gold stocks in the ASX sector. The company operates in Burkina Faso, a region rich in gold reserves. West African’s strong operational performance and low-cost base have attracted the attention of investors, with analysts such as Macquarie forecasting a 40% upside to its stock price.
Why It’s a Winner: West African Resources has positioned itself well in one of the highest gold-producing regions globally. Its cost-effective operations and high-grade gold deposits give it a competitive advantage in a rising gold market. Investors who are looking for significant upside potential in a high-risk, high-reward stock should look closely at West African Resources. The company’s solid financial position and growth trajectory make it an attractive option as gold prices remain elevated.
Undervalued Plays: Genesis Minerals, Regis Resources, Bellevue Gold
While the heavyweights of the industry have capitalised on the gold price rally, several undervalued gold stocks are still flying under the radar. These stocks have yet to fully benefit from the surge in gold prices, making them potential gems for investors looking for growth.
Genesis Minerals (ASX: GMD): Genesis Minerals has not fully capitalised on gold’s price surge, making it an undervalued stock with significant upside potential. The company has a high-quality project portfolio, and any improvement in its operational efficiency could lead to massive gains.
Regis Resources (ASX: RRL): Regis has been facing operational difficulties, but its large reserves and low-cost production make it an attractive option for long-term investors. The company has room to improve its performance, especially if gold prices continue to climb.
Bellevue Gold (ASX: BGL): Bellevue Gold’s high-grade gold deposits in Western Australia offer significant potential. While still in the exploration phase, Bellevue is one to watch as it moves toward development. The stock has not yet fully appreciated in line with gold’s price surge, offering an attractive entry point for investors.
How to Take Advantage of the Gold Surge
As gold prices remain near all-time highs, investors should consider a few strategies to take full advantage of the ongoing rally in the gold sector:
Diversification: Don’t limit yourself to just one gold stock. Consider diversifying your portfolio with a mix of large-cap producers like Newmont and smaller, high-risk/high-reward stocks like Bellevue Gold or Genesis Minerals. Diversification reduces risk while providing exposure to a range of growth opportunities.
Focus on Margin Leaders: With rising production costs, gold miners with high margins will continue to outperform. Look for companies with strong operational efficiency, like Northern Star and Evolution Mining, that can withstand rising costs without sacrificing profitability.
M&A Plays: Keep an eye on merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the sector. Cash-rich miners like Northern Star are looking to acquire smaller producers and exploration companies, which could create additional value for investors.
Counterpoints: Will Gold’s Rally Continue?
While the rally in gold prices has been impressive, there are concerns about profit-taking after such an extended run. Additionally, production costs for gold miners are rising, which could eat into their margins. If gold prices were to correct, these miners could face headwinds.
However, as geopolitical uncertainty and inflation remain prevalent, gold will likely continue to be a sought-after asset for investors, especially as central banks maintain low-interest rates. Long-term fundamentals for gold remain strong, and gold miners with efficient operations will continue to thrive in the years ahead.
Conclusion
Gold has hit $3,865/oz, marking a new era of investment opportunity. While the price of gold has surged to record highs, ASX gold stocks have not fully capitalised on this rally. Companies like Northern Star Resources, Evolution Mining, and West African Resources offer strong growth potential as gold prices remain elevated. Additionally, Genesis Minerals, Regis Resources, and Bellevue Gold represent significant opportunities for investors seeking to profit from undervalued stocks in the gold sector.
In conclusion, the gold sector presents significant investment opportunities, but it’s crucial to carefully select stocks based on their operational efficiency, production costs, and market positioning. With careful analysis and strategic investment, investors can benefit from gold’s continued strength.
FAQs
- Why have ASX gold stocks underperformed despite record gold prices?
ASX gold stocks have underperformed due to investor scepticism from past operational failures, rising production costs, and concerns about global economic stability. While gold prices have surged, many miners are struggling with profitability due to higher costs and past issues that have impacted their growth potential.
- Are ASX gold stocks still a good investment despite the underperformance?
Yes, ASX gold stocks still present an opportunity for investors, particularly those looking for undervalued gems. Stocks like Northern Star Resources, Evolution Mining, and West African Resources have strong potential for growth, as they are well-positioned to benefit from gold’s continued strength. The valuation gap between gold prices and gold miners presents a good entry point for savvy investors.
- How do gold prices impact Australian gold mining companies?
Gold prices directly affect Australian gold mining companies’ revenues, as they are able to sell gold at higher prices. Additionally, the weak Australian dollar amplifies the profits for Aussie miners, as gold’s value in local currency is further increased. Miners with strong operational efficiency and low-cost production will benefit the most from these high gold prices.
- What are the risks of investing in ASX gold stocks right now?
The primary risks include rising production costs, which may affect margins for some gold miners. There is also a risk of profit-taking after gold’s record rally, and gold prices could experience corrections. Additionally, operational issues in gold mining companies, including debt levels and past failures, may affect future performance.
- Which ASX gold stocks offer the best growth potential?
Northern Star Resources, Evolution Mining, and West African Resources offer significant growth potential due to their low-cost operations, strong cash flows, and ability to weather market volatility. Additionally, Genesis Minerals and Regis Resources represent potential high-risk, high-reward plays, with substantial upside if gold prices remain high.
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