Intel vs. AMD: Which Chip Giant Will Win This Week’s Earnings Battle?

Intel stock has surged 82% year-to-date on government backing and strategic investments, while AMD maintains stronger analyst support with 29 Buy ratings versus Intel’s mostly Hold and Sell ratings. Both semiconductor rivals report earnings on Wednesday, setting up a high-stakes showdown that will reveal which turnaround story is real, and which is just hype.
For Australian investors in data centre stocks like NextDC (ASX: NXT) and Macquarie Technology (ASX: MAQ), these earnings matter more than you might think. The chip sector’s health directly signals demand for the AI infrastructure that ASX operators are building. Strong results support the idea that expanding data centres makes sense. But if the company gives weak future guidance, it could hurt local data centre stocks, which have already risen 25–35% since April.

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Intel’s Government-Backed Comeback

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC)

Intel has staged one of 2025’s most dramatic rallies after securing an $8.9 billion US government stake, attracting a $5 billion investment from Nvidia, and landing a $2 billion deal with SoftBank. These lifelines have transformed sentiment from existential crisis to cautious optimism.

● Wall Street expects revenue of $13.14 billion with earnings per share of just $0.01-barely profitable
● Rumours suggest AMD may become a foundry customer, validating Intel’s manufacturing capabilities
● The 18A manufacturing node, if delivered successfully, could close the gap with TSMC

The bull case rests on government backing, providing both capital and credibility. Intel’s foundry business, while currently bleeding billions, represents a strategic asset if the company can execute. Strategic investments from Nvidia and SoftBank suggest industry players see long-term value.
However, Intel continues losing server market share to AMD while its foundry burns cash with uncertain profitability timelines. The company has repeatedly missed manufacturing targets over five years, raising execution concerns. The 82% stock rally may have priced in perfect execution, leaving little margin for disappointment on Wednesday.

AMD’s Steady Execution Machine

Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD)

AMD presents a stark contrast with consistent delivery under CEO Lisa Su. Data centre revenue has grown 122% in recent quarters as EPYC server processors capture share from Intel’s stumbling lineup.

● Analysts expect approximately $8.7 billion in revenue, representing roughly 28% year-over-year growth
● Benefits from 29 Buy ratings versus Intel’s mostly Hold/Sell ratings, reflecting Wall Street’s confidence
● MI300X AI accelerators are gaining traction as customers seek Nvidia alternatives

AMD’s server processors have become preferred for many cloud providers, offering better performance-per-watt than Intel alternatives. The company maintains a track record of meeting or exceeding guidance, which Intel cannot match.
The risks are still significant. China’s export limits on MI308 chips led to $800 million in losses, showing AMD’s exposure to global politics. Nvidia still controls over 90% of the AI chip market, keeping AMD far behind. If AI spending slows down, AMD’s high stock value could drop.

The Australian Connection: Why This Matters for ASX: NXT and ASX: MAQ

Australian data centre operators are deeply tied to Intel and AMD’s fortunes through their infrastructure investments. Macquarie Data Centres uses a Dell-NVIDIA-Intel technology stack in its IC3 Super West facility, while NextDC relies heavily on both Intel and AMD server processors to power customer workloads.
When hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google increase data centre spending, which depends on strong chip demand, Australian operators benefit through capacity expansion and higher utilisation. The semiconductor sector serves as a leading indicator: if chip companies report slowing orders, data centre operators typically feel the effects within one to two quarters.
Strong Wednesday earnings would validate the AI infrastructure thesis supporting NextDC’s rally and justify Macquarie Technology’s aggressive IC3 Super West expansion. Weak results or cautious guidance could trigger reassessment of whether ASX data centre stocks have run too far, too fast.

Comparing the Contenders

From pure fundamentals, AMD appears the safer play. Consistent execution, strong analyst support, and continued server market share gains justify its premium valuation. The company has proven it can deliver while Intel struggles with the basics.
Intel represents higher risk, higher reward. If the foundry roadmap succeeds and market share stabilises, substantial upside exists. Government backing reduces bankruptcy risk but doesn’t guarantee competitive success. The near-zero earnings forecast highlights the distance Intel must travel. For Australian tech investors, the calculus includes second-order effects. Strong chip earnings reinforce confidence in NextDC and Macquarie Technology’s expansion plans. Weak results might prompt questions about whether data centre capacity is getting ahead of actual demand.

Bottom Line

Wednesday’s dual earnings will clarify whether the AI infrastructure boom remains on track or if we’re entering a digestion phase. AMD looks positioned to deliver another solid quarter, while Intel faces higher expectations after its dramatic rally.
Pay attention to forward guidance rather than backward results. Commentary on data centre demand, capital expenditure trends, and order books will matter most for assessing whether the chip recovery, and by extension, ASX data centre stocks, can sustain momentum.
AMD offers proven execution and lower risk. Intel offers asymmetric upside if turnaround execution improves. For ASX tech investors holding NextDC or Macquarie Technology, strong semiconductor results should reinforce conviction. Weak guidance might warrant trimming exposure to a theme that’s already priced with considerable optimism.