Core Lithium Soars 80% as Grants Mine Update Reignites Investor Confidence

CXO Rebounds Hard as New Grants Mine Strategy Sparks Renewed Long-Term Optimism

Core Lithium (ASX: CXO) has rallied close to eighty percent over the past month and the momentum has been supported by the latest update on the Grants mine. Investors are now starting to assign more long term value to the project after the company outlined a clearer development pathway. The mine will begin as an open pit before transitioning into an underground operation, giving Core Lithium a staged and more capital efficient approach to bringing production back online.

One of the more important details is that ore has already been delivered within one month of mobilisation. This matters because it tells us the team did not need to spend months clearing waste rock to expose new ore. The material was already sitting at the base of the partially mined pit, which gives Core Lithium immediate feedstock and an earlier path to revenue.

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Grants Mine Upgrade Strengthens Economics and Extends CXO’s Production Runway

Management also highlighted that underground capital has been deferred rather than removed. Even so, the economics look far more manageable in the near term. Grants pre production capital is now expected to be around A$3M to A$5M per pit compared with the previous estimate of roughly A$40M. For me, this is one of the more meaningful shifts. It lowers upfront risk, improves optionality, and gives Core Lithium time to rebuild confidence while the lithium market works through its own recovery cycle.

When you look at the long term value of the Grants mine, the update becomes even more meaningful. Lithium ore reserves have increased by thirty three percent to 1.53 million tonnes at 1.4 percent lithium concentrate. A higher grade reserve and better pit geometry extend the mine life and materially reduce the risk of a failed restart. That is one of the key reasons the market has begun to rerate Core Lithium. Investors can now see a longer, clearer production runway backed by higher quality ore.

Lean Capex and Competitive Costs Strengthen Core Lithium’s Operating Outlook

The lower capital intensity only strengthens the story. With materially reduced pre production spending, the financial position looks far more resilient, even in periods where lithium prices soften due to swings in supply and demand. Cost guidance also sits in a reasonable range for a small Australian hard rock operation. Open pit mining costs are about A$50 per tonne of ore, underground mining is around A$80 per tonne, processing is about A$46 per tonne, and general and administrative costs are about A$11 per tonne.

Lithium Price Dynamics

Lithium prices are still sitting near the lows we saw after the 2022 spike that followed the Russia related supply disruptions. Even so, the past year has finally shown the first signs of a meaningful demand upswing. Lithium carbonate futures recently moved above CNY 83,000 per tonne in November, reaching their highest level since the one year peak of CNY 85,680 in August. The strength has been driven by improving battery demand and accelerating investment in power infrastructure.

A large share of this demand is coming from China as the country ramps up energy spending to support rapid data centre expansion. The build out of AI computing capacity is incredibly energy intensive, and provinces have been funnelling capital into grid upgrades, storage systems, and supporting battery installations. All of this quietly feeds back into higher lithium consumption, which is why the market has started to stabilise after a very tough period.