Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) Hits 52-Week High as Ellison Scraps Exit: Buy the Rally or Sell the Governance Risk?

Mineral Resources: 52-Week High Rally or Governance Trap?

Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN) is trading near 52-week highs, having touched A$56.56 last week before settling around A$54.40, up roughly 62% over the past 12 months. The lithium and iron ore miner has staged an impressive comeback, but the rally comes with a catch: founder Chris Ellison scrapped his mid-2026 exit at November’s AGM. He’s now staying indefinitely under a vague “multi-year transition” with no deadline. We believe the market is betting on strong operations while ignoring leadership risks, a trade that could work well or backfire badly.

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Lithium Surge and Onslow Ramp-Up Power the Rally

Two things are driving this momentum. First, lithium sentiment improved in December after Chinese authorities announced plans to cancel expired mining licences. This sparked supply worries and pushed lithium prices to their highest since mid-2024.

Second, Onslow Iron delivered results. The flagship project hit its target capacity of 35 million tonnes per year between August and October 2025. This triggered a A$200 million payment from Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners. More importantly, it proves Mineral Resources can execute big projects and positions Onslow as the main engine for paying down debt.

The POSCO deal adds to the positive story. The Korean steel giant is buying a 30% stake in Mineral Resources’s lithium assets for US$765 million. If this closes in early 2026 as expected, it will strengthen the balance sheet further. These wins explain why investors are looking past the governance mess for now.

Governance Cloud Hasn’t Cleared

Here’s the problem investors shouldn’t ignore: the scandals from late 2024 haven’t gone away. At November’s AGM, Chairman Malcolm Bundey said Ellison won’t leave by mid-2026 as promised. The company is now working on a “three-stage succession plan” with no fixed end date.

This is a big step back from earlier promises. An internal investigation found Ellison misused company money and was involved in tax evasion. He paid an A$8.8 million fine and gave up A$9.6 million in pay, yet he’s still running the show. A class action lawsuit filed in March 2025 is still active. The ATO and ASIC are both running separate investigations.

The market seems to have moved on from these issues. We think that’s risky. Governance problems have a habit of coming back at the worst times. The mix of regulatory probes, lawsuits, and a founder who won’t leave creates real risk that may not show up in the share price.

The Investor’s Takeaway

At A$54.38, Mineral Resources trades above what most analysts think it’s worth. TipRanks shows an average target of about A$47, roughly 15% below today’s price. Morningstar is more bullish with A$68, but that assumes lithium prices rise strongly over the next few years.

Bull case: Onslow cash flows, lithium recovery, and the POSCO deal could help cut the A$5.4 billion debt pile. If everything works out, today’s price could look cheap.

Bear case: The stock has run 62% while the company lost A$900 million in FY25 and faces ongoing legal and governance issues. Analysts suggest it’s overvalued.

Our view: If you already own Mineral Resources, consider trimming after this strong run. If you’re looking to buy, waiting for a pullback towards A$45-48 makes sense. The business is performing well, but buying near 52-week highs with unresolved scandals requires either strong conviction or comfort with big price swings.

As we head into 2026, the primary catalyst for a further re-rating will be the final regulatory approval of the POSCO deal and whether the company can maintain 35 Mtpa production at Onslow without further capital expenditure.