EQ Resources (ASX:EQR) Hits Decade High on 33% Production Jump: Time to Buy or Take Profits?

EQ Resources surges with record tungsten production

EQ Resources (ASX: EQR) is having a moment. The tungsten miner’s shares surged 9.3% this week to hit their highest price in a decade, rewarding investors who backed the company during its transformation from a small explorer into a genuine producer. The trigger was a strong quarterly update showing production jumped 33% to reach 38,292 MTU, and the timing couldn’t be better. Tungsten prices have hit record levels, with the key benchmark climbing from US$825 per mtu in late December to US$900 by early January. For a company producing the metal that Western governments desperately need, this is the perfect storm.

But after nearly doubling in twelve months, the question investors need to ask is simple: Is there more upside ahead, or have the easy gains already been made?

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China’s Stranglehold Creates a Rare Opportunity

To understand why EQ Resources matters, you need to understand the tungsten market. China controls over 80% of the global supply, and in February 2025, Beijing effectively shut the door on exports by requiring special permits that haven’t been issued. Western manufacturers who relied on Chinese tungsten for decades suddenly found themselves scrambling.

The result has been dramatic. Prices have surged over 40% in recent months, with some grades up nearly 90% for the year. This isn’t just a temporary trade dispute; it’s a fundamental shift in how critical minerals flow around the world. The US Department of Defence has flagged tungsten shortages as a genuine risk to military manufacturing.

This is where EQ Resources comes in. With mines operating in both Queensland and Spain, the company is one of the few Western producers that can actually deliver tungsten to customers who can no longer buy from China. That’s a powerful position to be in.

EQ Resources Is Delivering When It Matters Most

EQ Resources isn’t just benefiting from higher prices; it’s also executing well. Both its Mt Carbine operation in Queensland and the Barruecopardo mine in Spain hit record daily production rates during the quarter.

The company has invested in smart technology to improve efficiency. Its XRT ore sorting system uses X-rays to separate tungsten from waste rock, and a recent upgrade boosted sorting capacity by 50%. These improvements mean better margins as production grows.

The financial picture has strengthened, too. The Spanish operation delivered around A$7.8 million in EBITDA and turned cash positive within nine months of being acquired. A new five-year offtake deal with Traxys covering 7,000 tonnes of concentrate provides welcome revenue certainty.

The Investor’s Takeaway

The bull case is easy to see: a rare Western tungsten producer, record prices, growing production, and a commodity that governments consider strategically critical. The fundamentals genuinely look strong.

Here’s the catch. The market has noticed all of this. With the stock up nearly 100% over the past year, much of the good news is already reflected in the share price. Analysts have a consensus target of A$0.06, roughly 25-28% below where shares currently trade.

Our view: EQ Resources remains an attractive way to play the tungsten shortage, but timing matters. If you already own shares, the structural tailwinds support holding. If you’re looking to buy in, waiting for a pullback to the 6-7 cent range would offer a better entry point. The tungsten story isn’t going away, but patience could be rewarded.