Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL) Hits 52-Week High After Strong Quarter: Time to Buy This ASX Gold Stock?

Bellevue Gold is recovering, but high costs remain the key risk

Bellevue Gold (ASX: BGL) produced 32,031 ounces in the December 2025 quarter, up roughly 10% from the 29,100 ounces it delivered in September. The stock closed at A$1.76 following Tuesday’s trade, remaining near fresh 52-week highs and more than double its August low of A$0.77. For investors who held on through one of the toughest ramp-up stories in recent ASX gold mining history, this quarter finally offers some hope.

But is the recovery real? With costs still well above what other gold miners pay and FY25’s guidance disasters fresh in mind, we believe investors should be cautiously optimistic but not get carried away just yet.

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Bellevue Gold’s Road to Redemption After FY25 Turmoil

FY25 was a year Bellevue Gold shareholders would rather forget. The company started with guidance of 165,000 to 180,000 ounces, but had to cut it twice, delivering only around 130,000 ounces. The problem was simple: gold grades were lower than expected in key mining areas.

The money troubles hit hard. In April 2025, Bellevue Gold raised A$156 million in emergency funding at just A$0.85 per share, painful for existing shareholders. The COO left during this messy period, and the share price crashed from A$2.03 in July 2024 to just A$0.77 by August 2025.

So what has changed? Mining has moved into the higher-grade Deacon Main and Viago zones, which should deliver stronger results through FY26. The company also hired Peter Ganza as the new COO from Ramelius Resources. These are real fixes, not just a rising gold price doing the heavy lifting.

December Quarter Shows Progress, But Costs Stay High

The December quarter results look solid. The 32,031 ounces came with a recovery rate of 96.1%, beating expectations. Free cash flow nearly doubled to around A$62 million from A$33 million in September.

The balance sheet is in much better shape. Cash and gold on hand have grown to A$165 million. The company also cut its hedge book by 18,345 ounces, meaning Bellevue Gold can now capture more of the current gold price, which hit a record high above US$4,700 per ounce this week.

Here is the catch. While Bellevue’s December quarter AISC landed at A$2,989 per ounce, its FY26 guidance of A$2,600 to A$2,900 remains well above the industry average. If gold prices drop, margins will get squeezed hard. The company needs to bring costs down to truly win over investors.

FY26 guidance of 130,000 to 150,000 ounces at an AISC of A$2,600-2,900/oz looks doable. The bigger test comes in FY27, when management targets 175,000 to 195,000 ounces.

The Investor’s Takeaway

The bull case is simple: the company is fixing its problems, gold is at record highs, and the stock sits well below its May 2024 all-time high of A$2.10. RBC has a price target of A$2.00; the majority of analysts maintain a Buy or Outperform rating following the December update.

The bear case is just as clear. Costs are too high. If gold pulls back, profits shrink fast. After FY25’s failures, management still needs to prove it can deliver consistently.

Our view? The recovery looks real this time. But we would like to see one or two more solid quarters before getting too excited. If you can handle the risk, current levels could work. If you prefer playing it safe, wait for costs to start falling first.