Pantoro Gold (ASX:PNR) Falls 11% Despite Record A$84m Quarter: Buy the Dip or Warning Sign?

Pantoro Gold Falls 11% Despite Strong Quarter

Pantoro Gold (ASX: PNR) dropped 11 per cent following the release of its December 2025 quarterly report, despite delivering A$83.6 million in EBITDA and building its cash position to A$216.5 million with zero debt. The company produced 22,071 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of A$2,571 per ounce, a sharp improvement from the troubled September quarter.

So why the sell-off? For investors watching this gold producer, the gap between strong financials and a falling share price raises a key question: is this a buying opportunity while others panic, or a warning sign that execution challenges remain?

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Production Missed Expectations Despite Cost Improvement

While the December quarter showed improvement, production of 22,071 ounces missed analyst forecasts by around 15 per cent. Ord Minnett had pencilled in closer to 26,000 ounces, leaving the actual figure well below expectations.

The shortfall stemmed from minor slips at the Princess Royal open pit that disrupted the mining schedule. Open pit operations are now expected to be completed one month later than planned. As a result, management flagged that FY2026 production is now expected at the lower end of its 100,000 to 110,000-ounce guidance range.

This guidance softening is likely the primary driver of the 11 per cent fall. Markets hate “lower end of guidance” updates, and this explains the selloff more than simple profit-taking.

The good news is that costs improved sharply. AISC dropped to A$2,571 per ounce from A$3,139 in the September quarter. That earlier period was hit by a rockfall that trapped a remote-controlled bogger at the OK Mine, along with lower grades at Scotia. The December improvement suggests those issues were temporary.

Why Hasn’t the Share Price Held Up?

Beyond the production miss, Pantoro Gold shares have surged more than 220 per cent throughout 2025.

After a run like that, some investors take profits when they see any sign of trouble.

There was also a notable shareholder sale in December. Tulla Resources sold more than 25.8 million shares, reducing its stake to 6.11 per cent. While Tulla remains committed to the company, the sale added to selling pressure. The balance sheet looks strong with over A$216 million in cash and no debt, giving Pantoro flexibility to fund growth without raising capital.

The Investor’s Takeaway for Pantoro Gold

The bull case remains compelling. Goldman Sachs recently raised its price target to A$8.00, Canaccord Genuity to A$7.50, and Ord Minnett to A$7.30. From current levels near A$5.15, even the lowest target implies upside of more than 40 per cent.

However, not everyone is convinced. Bell Potter remains cautious with a Sell rating and a price target near A$4.20, implying around 18 per cent downside from current levels. After a 220 per cent run, the market now demands flawless execution, and the December quarter didn’t quite deliver that.

Pantoro Gold is a single-asset company, meaning everything depends on Norseman. Any future hiccup flows straight to earnings.

We believe patient investors could find value at these levels, but those concerned about near-term volatility might wait for the March quarter. If Pantoro Gold delivers stronger production and demonstrates that the Princess Royal delays are behind it, today’s dip could look like a missed opportunity.