WiseTech Global (ASX:WTC) 82% Upside or a Value Trap in Disguise?

Is the Market Missing the Real Question on Wisetech Global

From writing on over 100 different ASX companies over the past year, one fundamental lesson keeps showing up again and again.

Making money in markets is rarely about simply buying “great companies” or chasing the next big idea. It’s about buying quality businesses at the right price.

And in a market that looks priced at a premium, that job gets harder. The opportunity set shrinks, and it becomes more difficult to find genuine value.

That’s why we think WiseTech Global is worth putting on the research list for long term, growth focused investors. In our view, the risk to reward looks more favourable here, especially for a business with an exceptional balance sheet.

Right now, there are 15 analysts covering the stock with a Buy rating, with an average price target of $105. That implies around 82% upside, and the bull case stretches to $136.

To be clear, we’re not saying “jump in.” What we are saying is this looks like a good time to do the work and really understand the business, the valuation, and what needs to go right from here.

But it’s just as important to note there is still a bear case for WiseTech. As always, the upside only matters if you’re honest about the risks and what could break the thesis.

What are the Best ASX Stocks to invest in right now?

Check our buy/sell tips

The Stock Is Popular

What we saw in 2025 from WiseTech Global was strong organic growth.

Total revenue reached $778 million, up 13%. The CargoWise platform contributed $682 million, growing 15%. Even more impressive, customer retention held at 99%.

That retention number matters. It speaks to real product stickiness, and in logistics software, stickiness is the moat. Once a global freight forwarder standardises on a core platform, switching is painful, risky, and expensive. That’s how you end up with “winner take most” dynamics over time.

Free cash flow was even stronger. With more disciplined capital allocation and tighter cost control, free cash flow lifted 31%. That’s exactly what you want to see in a high quality software compounder. Growth, but with improving cash generation.

Why We’re Watching This One Closely

Now looking forward, FY26 could start with a major strategic lever: the E2open acquisition.

WiseTech is effectively buying a broader supply chain platform that can extend CargoWise’s reach and fill product gaps, particularly around end to end trade execution. E2open has real capabilities and an embedded customer base, but it has historically lacked focus and consistent execution.

This is where WiseTech’s operating playbook matters. Product velocity, discipline, and repeatable integration processes are exactly the areas where WiseTech has built credibility. If they can bring that same execution to E2open’s assets, there’s a genuine opportunity to unlock value that E2open couldn’t realise on its own.

In simple terms, if the integration and synergies land well, it should strengthen the flywheel. More functionality, more modules, more customer capture, more data and workflow embeddedness, and ultimately a more valuable platform.

Under a bullish FY26 setup, you can frame it like this: revenue scaling materially, with forecasts reaching $2.0 billion (Analaysts forecasts), and EBITDA potentially reaching $828 million.

That’s the bull case. The upside is meaningful, but it hinges on execution. Integration is the whole game from here.

The Next 12 Months Will Decide the Narrative

But what investors need to understand is this is not a small bolt on acquisition.

E2open is a heavy platform with real complexity. If integration drags, it can do more than just delay synergy benefits. It can slow WiseTech’s core product cadence, distract management, and reduce the speed of innovation across CargoWise.

It’s also worth being clear on what went wrong at E2open. The issue was not simply “not enough investment.” It was deeper than that: product sprawl, lack of coherence, weaker execution, and growth that stalled. That means the turnaround is not automatic. It’s on WiseTech Global to execute, simplify, integrate, and restore momentum.

That’s why this setup has a genuinely wide range of outcomes.

Bull case

WiseTech buys an underperforming asset with real product depth, applies its execution engine, and turns E2open into an accelerant for enterprise growth and cross sell. If that happens, you get a stronger end to end offering, higher wallet share, and a bigger addressable market without sacrificing the CargoWise flywheel.

Bear case

WiseTech buys a complex platform that absorbs focus, slows innovation, and fails to restore growth. That’s the danger scenario, especially because expectations embedded in the stock are already high. If execution slips, the market can punish it quickly.

So yes, there is a clear upside path and a clear downside path here. The swing factor is integration velocity and whether WiseTech can impose discipline and coherence on a platform that historically lacked both.