Trump’s $12 Billion ‘Project Vault’ : 6 ASX Rare Earth Stocks Set to Benefit

ASX rare earth stocks jump as Trump’s Project Vault targets supply chains

ASX rare earth stocks are back in focus after US President Donald Trump launched Project Vault, a US$12 billion strategic minerals stockpile that marks America’s boldest move yet to break free from Chinese supply chains. The initiative combines approximately US$1.7 billion in private capital with a US$10 billion loan from the US Export-Import Bank to buy and store rare earths, gallium, cobalt, and other critical materials for American manufacturers.

More than a dozen major companies, including General Motors, Stellantis, Boeing, GE Vernova, Western Digital, and Google, have already signed on as participants. ASX rare earth stocks responded immediately, with Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC) climbing 3.3%. For Australian producers, this isn’t just good news; it’s a fundamental change in how the US sources critical materials.

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Why Project Vault Matters for Australian Miners

China controls around 70% of global rare earth mining and 90% of processing capacity. When Beijing imposed export restrictions in April 2025 and threatened a dramatic escalation in October, it exposed how vulnerable Western supply chains had become. Although China paused the second wave of restrictions until November 2026 following the Trump-Xi summit in Busan, the April controls remain in place, and the pause is explicitly temporary. Project Vault aims to build strategic reserves during this window of relative stability, before restrictions potentially return.

For Australian producers, this represents structural demand rather than a one-off boost. Australia’s stable jurisdiction, high-grade deposits, and existing government support make it a natural partner. We believe this policy shift is genuinely bullish for the sector.

6 ASX Rare Earth Stocks Positioned to Benefit

Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC) is the world’s largest producer outside China, with the high-grade Mt Weld mine and processing facilities in Kalgoorlie and Malaysia. Lynas offers the lowest-risk exposure to this theme.

Arafura Rare Earths (ASX: ARU) has a fully permitted, construction-ready project in the Northern Territory. With binding offtake agreements from Hyundai, Kia, and Siemens Gamesa, plus over A$1.35 billion in sovereign-backed financing from Australia, the US, Canada, and Germany, Arafura offers leveraged upside with significant de-risking.

Iluka Resources (ASX: ILU) is building Australia’s first fully integrated rare earths refinery at Eneabba, backed by A$1.65 billion in government financing. Commissioning is expected in 2027. Iluka’s existing mineral sands business provides cash flow stability.

Northern Minerals (ASX: NTU) offers exposure to heavy rare earths, specifically dysprosium and terbium, which China dominates even more than light rare earths. The Browns Range project carries execution risk, but strategic scarcity could make it a takeover target.

VHM Limited (ASX: VHM) received its mining licence in April 2025 for the Goschen Project in Victoria. With a pre-tax NPV of A$1.64 billion and an IRR of 65%, the economics are compelling. VHM has received financing support from both Australian and US export banks.

Sunrise Energy Metals (ASX: SRL) hosts the world’s largest scandium deposit at Syerston in New South Wales. Lockheed Martin has signed an option to purchase up to a quarter of annual output, while US EXIM has expressed interest in US$67 million of financing.

The Investor’s Takeaway

Project Vault represents a genuine policy shift at a critical moment. With China’s export restrictions temporarily paused but set to potentially resume in late 2026, the US is racing to build supply chain resilience. Australian producers are natural beneficiaries of this urgency.

For risk tolerance, Lynas offers the safest entry with established production. Arafura provides leveraged upside with substantial institutional backing. Iluka offers a defensive profile with existing cash flows.

Key risks include commodity price volatility, project execution delays, and potential Chinese retaliation through further export restrictions when the current pause expires. We recommend focusing on producers and near-term developers rather than early-stage explorers. The tailwind is real, but selectivity matters.