Banks Smashed It, Healthcare Got Destroyed, Can BHP and Rio Tinto Keep the ASX Rally Alive This Week?

Earnings Week: Can BHP and Rio Keep the ASX Rally Alive?

Last week’s ASX rally proved one thing beyond doubt: this market is rewarding confidence and punishing anything less. CBA (ASX: CBA) delivered a record first-half cash profit of A$5.45 billion, sending shares up nearly 7 per cent. ANZ (ASX: ANZ) hit a record high, lifting the banking sector 5.4 per cent for the week. But the flip side was brutal. CSL (ASX: CSL) crashed 17 per cent after weak earnings and a shock CEO departure. Pro Medicus (ASX: PME) fell 20 per cent despite record revenue. Cochlear (ASX: COH) dropped 17 per cent.

The ASX 200 still finished higher at 8,918 after a 1.4 per cent Friday selloff wiped out much of the gains. This week is even bigger, and miners trading near record highs step into the spotlight.

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Will the ASX Rally Continue? Here Are The 5 Names That Matter Most This Week!

BHP (ASX: BHP) – Tuesday. The one everyone is watching. Shares recently hit A$52.54, their highest since April 2022, driven by strong copper prices and progress on the Jansen potash project. With copper demand growing from data centres and electrification, a good result could push the stock higher. But we believe BHP needs to beat expectations at these levels clearly. Just meeting them will not be enough.

Telstra (ASX: TLS) – Tuesday. The safe option. With a dividend yield of around 3.9 per cent, Telstra offers what the market is suddenly hungry for: stability. After watching healthcare stocks lose 20 per cent in a day, income investors may find Telstra’s steady earnings more appealing than usual.

Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) – Thursday. Rio reports full-year results at an all-time high of A$168.78. Bloomberg Intelligence labelled this result “crucial for the country’s earnings rebound.” Beyond iron ore numbers, watch for comments on Chinese demand and the collapse of the Glencore merger talks. A strong result confirms the shift into resources still has legs.

Wesfarmers (ASX: WES) – Thursday. The consumer spending test. The RBA recently raised rates, putting more pressure on household budgets. If Bunnings and Kmart sales are still growing, that is a positive signal. If spending is slowing, it could worry investors across the retail sector.

Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN) – Thursday. The wildcard. Shares have rallied on rising lithium prices, and the January quarterly showed progress: net debt fell A$500 million to below A$4.9 billion, and liquidity strengthened to over A$1.4 billion. But no dividend has been paid since the first half of 2024, and governance questions remain. Investors will want to see that momentum continue. A cleaner balance sheet and signs of a return to profit would go a long way towards rebuilding confidence.

Week 2 Confirmed the Market Is Brutal

The message from the ASX rally last week was simple. At record valuations, “solid” is not enough. CSL, Pro Medicus, and Cochlear all fell 17 to 20 per cent on results that in a normal market would have been fine. The market wanted more, and when it did not get it, selling was swift.

That is exactly the situation BHP and Rio face. Both are priced for strong results. Watch for dividends, cost control, and what management says about China. If the tone is confident, the rotation out of tech and healthcare into miners could keep going and the ASX rally will continue.

In our view, miners have momentum. Banks have delivered, healthcare has been sold down, and resources are riding commodity tailwinds. But buying at record highs carries risk, and last week proved this market does not forgive disappointment.