Should You Buy Ampol Shares Amidst the Iran War?

Investors looking for somewhere, anywhere, to hide during the Iran war may think Ampol shares are a safe haven. After all, it’s a petrol provider for crying out loud, isn’t it making hay while the sun doesn’t shine for everyone else?! Investors think so given it is up nearly 20% in less than a month.

It will derive some benefits, no doubt, but it is not as simple a case of ‘buy Ampol shares and you’ll net a return like no other over the next 12-18 months’.

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Ampol broke its silence

For a few weeks, investors brought into Ampol without the company confirming what the impact would be. But last Friday, it put out an ASX announcement, specifically responding to the federal government’s emergency amendments to the Fuel Security Services Payment scheme, which is a direct consequence of the Iran war and the disruption to Middle Eastern oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The amendments include raising the scheme’s support “collar” to 10.0 Australian cents per litre and deferring major refinery maintenance to boost domestic fuel supply.

For Ampol, this is material on multiple fronts: it directly supports the economics of the company’s Lytton refinery in Queensland, the only remaining major refinery in Australia, and signals that the government is now actively treating Ampol as a strategic national asset rather than simply a commercial fuel distributor.

Despite some disruptions in Asia, Ampol had strong inventory and confirmed orders at the outset of the conflict, helping ensure ongoing supply for its customers in Australia and New Zealand. Last Friday’s news represented a company signalling to the market that it was better prepared than its critics assumed, a deliberate reassurance message during a period of acute investor uncertainty.

But there’s a catch (or two)

Ampol told investors it deferred a major maintenance program from early June to the start of August. This followed a detailed technical assessment confirming this could be done. This means ~300Ml of demand will be supplied during that period. In practical terms, Lytton is now running flat out, and the regulatory environment has been loosened specifically to allow it to do so.

The release also flags a second phase of the FSSP review to be conducted across 2026, targeting longer-term fuel resilience — a process in which Ampol will be a central participant and the likely primary beneficiary of any further structural support. Of course this can only be a temporary solution, and it cannot keep producing oil from one refinery forever, at least not without any maintenance.

Furthermore, there is a very important point some investors may be missing. Now, yes, Lytton is more valuable given there are no alternatives. The FSSP enhancements provide a government-backed floor under refinery economics that simply did not exist for competitors.

However, Ampol is not a pure upstream oil producer. It is primarily a fuel distributor and retailer. When consumer confidence collapses, with energy being the only ASX 200 sector performing well as the Iran war continued while the broader market sold off; the company faces real demand destruction risk in its convenience retail and commercial fuel volumes.

A prolonged recession scenario, driven by rate hikes compounding the fuel price shock and people avoiding driving whilst using public transport instead, would hurt Ampol’s retail earnings meaningfully. Investors in Ampol shares should be wary.

Look at its results

Last week’s ASX release needs to be read against Ampol’s underlying financial position, which was already materially improved going into the crisis. Ampol’s full year 2025 results, announced on February 23, 2026, revealed a significant earnings turnaround driven by improved refinery operations and retail expansion.

The company reported Group RCOP EBIT of $947m, up 32% from the prior year, while RCOP NPAT surged 83%. The board declared a final dividend of 60 cents per share, fully franked, taking total ordinary dividends for 2025 to 100 cents per share.

This is not a company limping into the crisis. Ampol entered 2026 with strong cash generation, a balance sheet at 2.3 times adjusted net debt to EBITDA (within its target range) and momentum across both its refinery and convenience retail segments.

So is Ampol a war beneficiary? And should you buy Ampol shares?

Ampol is not a straightforward war trade. It is a beneficiary of supply disruption through Lytton, and it has genuine government backing that competitors lack. But it is also exposed to the consumer downturn that the war accelerates. The pending EG Australia acquisition, which is expected to be completed mid-2026 subject to ACCC approval, adds execution risk in an already-uncertain macro environment.

For investors with a medium-term horizon of 12 to 18 months, Ampol offers a compelling combination of strategic value, government support, a fully franked 3%-plus yield, and a refinery asset that has just become scarcer and more critical overnight. It is not a momentum trade – the obvious war spike has likely occurred. It is a structural hold for investors who believe, correctly, that Australia’s fuel vulnerability makes Lytton a national infrastructure asset for years to come, not just for the duration of the conflict.