Tyro Payments (ASX:TYR) Surges on RBA Card Reforms Despite Being Down 25% This Year- Is Now the Time to Buy?

Tyro jumps as RBA ruling eases investor concerns

Tyro Payments (ASX: TYR) jumped over 5% to A$0.79 on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia published its final ruling on card payment reform. The RBA confirmed a ban on card surcharges from October 2026, alongside lower merchant fees and new pricing transparency rules. What made Tuesday’s move interesting is the contrast with what happened in July 2025, when the same proposals first surfaced, and Tyro shares fell as much as 15% in a single session. The market has now had eight months to read the fine print, and the conclusion is clear: the final ruling is far less damaging than investors originally feared. The question heading into this week is whether Tyro, still 25% below its 2026 high, represents a genuine buying opportunity.

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Why the July Sell-Off Missed the Point

When the RBA floated these reforms last year, the fear was straightforward. If merchants can no longer pass card processing costs on to customers through surcharges, payment companies lose revenue. But the actual numbers tell a much calmer story for Tyro.

Only around 30% of Tyro’s 76,000 merchants surcharge customers at all. Even among those that do, the affected product accounts for just 2% of total transaction value. The financial exposure was always far smaller than the sell-off implied. We believe the July reaction significantly mispriced this risk, and Tuesday’s move is simply that overreaction being corrected.

The timeline also removes any near-term earnings pressure. The surcharge ban and fee cuts do not kick in until October 2026, with additional disclosure requirements following in April 2027. Management confirmed on Tuesday that the final ruling has no impact on near-term guidance, which clears the single biggest cloud hanging over the stock.

The Competitive Opportunity Most Investors Are Missing

Here is what makes the reforms genuinely interesting for Tyro beyond just the relief bounce. From April 2027, large payment processors will be required to publish their fees in a standardised, transparent format for the first time. For many merchants, this will be the first clear look at what they are actually paying.

Tyro already operates on transparent, cost-plus pricing. When competitors are forced to show their hand, merchants will start comparing options more aggressively. That conversation is one Tyro is well-positioned to win. The reforms could act as a catalyst for merchant switching toward lower-cost providers, adding new customers to Tyro’s platform across hospitality, retail, and healthcare over the next 12 to 18 months.

The Investor’s Takeaway

The bull case here is structural. Tyro’s pricing model is already aligned with where regulation is heading, and the transparency push could accelerate customer growth. At A$0.79, still 25% below its 2026 peak, the valuation looks attractive relative to the improved outlook. For patient investors with a medium-term horizon, this appears to be a compelling entry point.

The one risk worth watching carefully is the RBA’s planned mid-2026 consultation on BNPL services and mobile wallets. That review is still open-ended, and a negative outcome could bring regulatory uncertainty back onto the table. In our view, investors should be comfortable with current exposure, but size positions carefully ahead of that consultation paper. Tuesday’s ruling improved the near-term picture for Tyro meaningfully. The mid-2026 review is where the real uncertainty now lives.