ASX Weekly Wrap March 2026: Gold Crashes, DRO Surges and Five Stories That Shaped the Market

It was one of those weeks where the market gave with one hand and took with the other. The ASX 200 climbed 1.85% on Wednesday to 8,534 points when ceasefire hopes briefly lifted sentiment, then retreated sharply as those hopes collapsed by Thursday. By Friday, US futures were pointing lower, and investors were left asking the same question: what just happened? Here is a clear breakdown of the five stories that drove it all.

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The Five Stories That Defined the Week

Iran drove every market move. The US delivered a 15-point ceasefire proposal to Tehran, which sparked a mid-week relief rally across global markets. Then Iran rejected it, calling the terms unreasonable; oil pushed back above US$100 per barrel, and risk assets sold off hard. The S&P 500 fell 1.7% on Thursday, its worst session since the war began. Prediction markets now put just a 12% chance on a formal ceasefire by early April. Until that number moves, this conflict will continue to drive volatility on the ASX week after week.

The RBA rate path got more painful. The RBA has already hiked twice in 2026, lifting the cash rate from 3.6% to 4.1% in February and March. This week, all four major banks confirmed they expect another 0.25% rise in May, bringing the rate to 4.35%. That wipes out every cut delivered in 2025 in under three months. For investors, this matters because higher rates squeeze consumer spending, pressure property stocks, and reduce the appeal of growth names trading on high multiples. Bank stocks look better placed than most in this environment. 

Weebit Nano (ASX: WBT) felt that pressure directly on Friday, crashing after raising A$87 million via a placement priced at A$4.05 per share, a steep discount to its last close of A$4.54, a reminder that capital raises in a high-rate environment come at a real cost to existing shareholders.

Gold had a violent week. The metal rose to around US$4,560 per ounce mid-week before falling roughly 3% to US$4,415 by Friday. Rising US Treasury yields are the main culprit, making gold less attractive when bonds start paying a real return. ASX gold miners were hit hard, with Catalyst Metals down 14.4%, Ora Banda Mining falling 11%, and Bellevue Gold dropping 9.1%. In our view, gold miners face a tough few weeks unless the Iran situation escalates sharply or yields pull back.

Defence and nuclear were the week’s standout thematics. DroneShield (ASX: DRO) surged 19.33% to A$4.26 on Wednesday after securing a US Department of Defense contract, making it the ASX 200’s top performer for the session. The stock gave back some of those gains by Friday, closing at A$3.915 as profit-taking kicked in. Silex Systems (ASX: SLX) jumped 13.5% to A$5.55 as energy security concerns pushed capital into nuclear names. Both stocks had sold off earlier in the week on ceasefire hopes and recovered the moment those talks broke down. This suggests investors are treating the conflict as a long-term structural tailwind for defence and energy security stocks, not just a short-term trade.

Xero landed the biggest ASX tech deal of the week. On Friday morning, Xero (ASX: XRO) announced a multi-year partnership with Anthropic, embedding Claude AI directly into its platform and making Xero’s financial data accessible inside Claude.ai. Shares rose 2.5% to A$74.24. We believe this deal signals a genuine shift in Xero’s business model, from passive accounting software to an active financial decision-making tool for small businesses. The integration is not live yet, but the strategic direction is clear.

What to Watch When Markets Open Monday

Iran’s weekend developments will set the early tone. Any ceasefire signal, however tentative, would likely spark a sharp relief rally. Without one, expect the ASX to open under pressure.

Gold stabilisation around US$4,400 is the key level to watch. A recovery here would steady battered miners heading into next week.

The RBA May meeting odds are worth monitoring. If upcoming inflation data comes in softer than expected before May, rate hike expectations could shift quickly, creating a short-term opportunity in consumer and property stocks currently pricing in the worst.