Amplitude’s $151m Raising Sparks 11% Share Price Slide as Market Prices in Dilution

Why Amplitude’s $151m Raise Could Reshape Australia’s East Coast Market

Amplitude Energy (ASX: AMX) has just pulled off a $151 million capital raise, and the timing could not be more critical. While many resource companies are tightening their belts, Amplitude is doubling down on growth with its East Coast Supply Project, a development plan that could reshape gas supply on Australia’s eastern seaboard.

For investors, the story begins with the Nestor prospect. Management describes it as a low-risk, high-probability target, and the numbers back that up. By adding Nestor into the drilling program, Amplitude has effectively lifted the probability of at least one gas discovery to 99.7 percent. If successful, Nestor alone could contribute 20–30 terajoules per day to the Athena Gas Plant, extending plateau production at around 90 TJ a day by more than two years. That kind of certainty is rare in the energy sector, and it immediately raises the stakes.

So, what does this mean for Amplitude’s long-term value and the outlook for east coast gas markets?

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How Amplitude Plans to Deliver Low-Cost Growth in a Tight Gas Market

The recent capital raising directly supports Amplitude Energy’s growth strategy of unlocking value from its existing offshore fields and onshore processing facilities in the Otway and Gippsland basins. These assets sit close to major demand centres, positioning the company to benefit from increasingly tight gas markets on Australia’s east coast. 

The objective is clear: deliver production growth that helps address supply shortages in southeastern Australia. By building on established infrastructure, Amplitude is able to enhance its operational leverage while keeping development costs for new projects relatively low, strengthening both its competitive position and long-term growth potential.

Amplitude Energy Shares Drop 11% as $151m Raising Triggers Dilution Concerns

For investors, large institutional capital raisings are not uncommon, but the near-term outcomes can be uncertain. Amplitude Energy has issued approximately 626 million new shares, representing 24% of its existing share base. With this volume of stock entering the market at an offer price of AUD 0.24 per share, existing shareholders face dilution, and earnings per share are reduced.

 This dynamic helps explain the 11% decline in the share price following the announcement, as the market adjusts to both the discounted issue price and the expanded share count. Should the share price weaken further, it may reflect investors applying additional downward pressure to account for execution risk, as deploying large amounts of new capital often comes with a higher risk premium until project milestones are delivered.