Here are 5 ASX stocks that should go up, but won’t

We thought we’d take a look at 5 ASX stocks that should go up…but we think actually won’t. Any company will tell you they have a good market, experienced management and a solid reputation. The harsh reality is, not all do. And even those that do still struggle, for one reason or another that may not have been considered. Here are 5 stocks in such a position.

5 ASX stocks that should go up, but won’t

Air New Zealand (ASX:AIZ)

Why should this stock go up? Because it is a great way to play the travel boom – you can cut back on hotels, but you cannot cut back on flights if you want to go overseas and live in an island nation like New Zealand (or perhaps Australia). This airline does not have the reputational issues or aging fleet that Qantas has – heck, New Zealand just voted in an ex-executive as its new PM!

So why should it not go up? There are a few reasons. First, the airline industry is highly competitive and consumers have plenty of choices (Read: the flag carriers of Asia and the Middle East). Second, Air New Zealand may have a newer fleet but is still undertaking renewal which may be a less costly project than Qantas’ but costly nonetheless given the strong US dollar. Third, if the share price couldn’t return to pre-COVID levels during a travel boom, it is difficult to see how it can now as travel returns to more normal levels, especially if forecasted consensus estimates hold up. Although the Kiwi economy exited a recession in the September quarter, the country’s growth lags Australia.

Star Entertainment (ASX:SGR)

In theory, this stock should go up because of its highly patronised casinos in Sydney, Brisbane and the Gold Coast. Surely, state governments will not shut them down, given their contribution to their coffers. The fact that the NSW government backed down on its plans for a $120m tax indicates as such. And with $750m in cash, it is surely primed…isn’t it?

Well, that is what it said back in February when it last raised capital at a 50% discount, and look how that turned out.

The company raised capital feared what could be coming its way:

• AUSTRAC penalties,
• Four shareholder class actions,
• unpaid casino duties,
• fines from state regulators
• Competition from Crown
• Cutbacks in consumer discretionary spending
• The slow return of High Net Worth Chinese tourists and uncertainty as to when (or indeed if) they will ever return in their pre-COVID numbers.
• Its contribution to development at its Queensland properties, and;
• Potential debt repayments

We don’t expect to see this stock improve any time soon unless at least some of these issues are resolved.

APM Human Services

This company is a mostly government-funded employment, aged care and disability services entity. However high inflation is, the people that rely on its services will be cutting back on plenty of other things before they cut back on these services. It is over 35% owned by founder Megan Wynne and CEO Michael Anghie.

Sadly, the writing was on the wall when Anghie sold over $100m in shares as part of the IPO – why would he have sold if there was more value to come? Private equity owner Madison Dearborn sold down shares, and although it retains a 30% stake, it’ll want to cash out too. And operational headwinds remain, most particularly high employment which means there is less need for its employment services and that it is harder to find aged care and disability workers.

Kogan

Kogan should theoretically be solid because it is one of the market leaders in eCommerce. And it is no longer just some third party product seller, it offers mobile phone plans, insurance, internet and financial services. It also has a membership program called Kogan First that is designed to be similar to Amazon Prime and has more than 400,000 members.

We all know that during the pandemic, shopping online took off and has since normalised. Nonetheless, it is above pre-pandemic levels and Kogan is settling into a ‘new normal’ after some turbulence. However, eCommerce is a highly competitive space to be in, dominated by Amazon which is gradually entering Australia. Kogan did not capitalise on the COVID boom by becoming profitable. Yes, consensus estimates expect a profit in FY24, but don’t expect to see a share price spike until at least the half-yearly results in February and it shows signs it is headed that way.

Lendlease

Lendlease is a world leading property stock, renowned for multi-year developments, like Barangaroo in Sydney, as well as a solid investing business. It has such a large pipeline because very few companies in the property industry can manage projects at the scale on which Lendlease frequently works. The company can operate globally, but with local expertise. It has substantially cut its cost base since Tony Lombardo came to the helm a couple of years ago and has stayed profitable despite its challenges. 

However, Lendlease is the worst of both worlds, exposed to the lagging commercial property market, a dour investing market and the vulnerable construction sector. High interest rates, supply chain issues and investment underperformance have all prevented the company from reaching pre-pandemic levels.

Investors will keep this stock on their ‘no buy’ list until they see solid evidence things are turning around. In our view, there were some signs in its FY23 results, although investors seemingly think they were too early signs to draw definitive conclusions that would lead it to buy the stock.

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