Nifty Prediction Before Election Results 2024: What to Expect on June 4

The buzz among market analysts is palpable as exit polls signal yet another win for Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. This fervor has energized the Nifty bulls, who are eagerly chanting “Abki baar 24,000 paar,” hoping the index will soar past the 24,000 mark. This surge of optimism is largely based on the anticipated election victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on June 4, which many believe could spark a significant rally in the Indian stock market.

Exit Polls and Their Impact on Market Mood

Historically, exit polls have been reliable indicators of the market’s pulse, providing early insights into the potential outcomes of elections and their impact on economic policies. This year, the exit polls suggest a resounding success for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), with predictions showing the coalition could win over 350 seats. This expected victory is viewed by many investors as a positive signal, potentially leading to a stable government committed to ongoing policy continuity and economic reforms.

As of the last trading session on Friday, May 31, Nifty closed at 22,531, marking a decline of nearly 2% over the week. This drop reflects the cautious approach taken by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) as they brace for the election results. Despite this initial trepidation, the strong exit poll forecasts have rekindled investor confidence, suggesting that a decisive win for the NDA might be on the horizon.

Expected Market Reaction on June 4

We think that a stable government with a clear majority would be positively received by the market. We also anticipate that public sector companies, along with engineering, power, and banking sectors, will be at the forefront of the rally. Moreover, short covering by FIIs could further amplify the market’s upward movement.

What happened historically?

Looking back at previous election outcomes, market trends show significant volatility on the day of the results. For instance, in 2014 and 2019, the market experienced substantial intraday swings before settling with minimal change by the end of the trading session. We expect a similar pattern this year. We think that there may be an initial upward movement, but profit booking could occur in the latter half of the trading session.

The Nifty’s technical levels are also crucial to watch. The highest call writing is visible at the 23,000 level, while significant put writing is seen at 22,500. This indicates that the Nifty might oscillate between these levels in the near term. However, a decisive move past 23,400 could signal a further rally, while a fall below 22,400 might trigger a correction towards 22,000.

So what will happen on June 4th and after?

Several key factors will influence the market’s performance in the run-up to and immediately after the election results:

1. Election Outcome: The primary factor driving market sentiment will be the actual election results. If the BJP-led NDA secures over 350 seats, as predicted by exit polls, it would likely lead to a positive market reaction. Conversely, any deviation from this expected outcome could induce volatility.
2. Announcements by the Winning Party: Post-election, investors will keenly watch for policy announcements and priorities set by the new government. The Street is particularly interested in knowing who will be appointed as the new finance minister and what immediate policy measures will be taken.
3. RBI Policy: The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for June 5-7, will also be a significant event. Analysts like Vikrant Mehta of ITI Mutual Fund believe that the RBI is unlikely to change its policy rate or stance, given the current global economic scenario.
4. FII Flow: FIIs have been net sellers in the Indian market in the lead-up to the elections, offloading stocks worth nearly Rs 25,600 crore (AUD 4.6 billion) in May. Any reversal in this trend, particularly through short covering, could trigger a substantial market rally.
5. Macro Data: Economic indicators such as India’s Q4 GDP growth numbers, which came in at 7.8%, and other data points like services and manufacturing PMI will also play a role in shaping market sentiment.
6. Auto Sales: Monthly auto sales data, particularly from major players like Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors, will be under the spotlight. Any positive surprises in these numbers could bolster market confidence.

Predictions for Key Sectors

Based on the anticipated election outcome, analysts are bullish on several key sectors:

• Financials: Large-cap financial stocks are expected to lead the rally, driven by expectations of policy continuity and economic reforms.
• Capital Goods and Infrastructure: These sectors are likely to benefit from the government’s continued focus on infrastructure development and capital expenditure.
• Automobiles: The auto sector is expected to see positive movement, particularly if monthly sales data show growth.
• Public Sector Units (PSUs): PSUs are predicted to perform well, bolstered by expectations of continued government support and reform initiatives.

Divam Sharma, Founder and Fund Manager at Green Portfolio, advises investors to capitalize on the initial rally but also be cautious of potential profit booking as the “buy the rumor, sell the news” phenomenon plays out.

Takeaway

As the Indian stock market braces for the Lok Sabha election results on June 4, all eyes are on the Nifty’s performance. The exit polls predicting a clear victory for the BJP-led NDA have set the stage for a potential market rally. However, investors should be prepared for heightened volatility and be ready to navigate through the swings. The market’s ultimate direction will hinge on the actual election results, policy announcements by the new government, and macroeconomic indicators.

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