Our 5 ASX Predictions for 2025! You’re Welcome

Our 5 ASX Predictions for 2025!

Yes it’s that time of year. The start of a new one, where everyone gets out their crystal balls and tries to predict what will happen in the year to come. This is no less true with regard to the share market, most particularly the direction of the indices, but also where individual commodities may go as well as sectors and even individual stocks.

Any predictions that become a reality are pointed to as an ‘I told you so’ by anyone making them, and any predictions that are wrong are usually forgotten or perhaps pointed out as wrong if the opposite reality happens. We’ve gazed into our crystal balls for the year ahead and, as long as there is not a major economic crash or a pandemic, we think it is reasonable to expect these 5 eventualities in 2025.

1. REITs will recover

We think rate cuts will commence in 2025. Even if the rate cut cycle doesn’t start until May, that still leaves more than half the year for the cycle to eventuate. But even the first cut will be a confidence booster for the sector. In fact, even more optimistic talk from Michelle Bullock in February’s meeting could bode well. We think investors need only look to foreign markets to see what could happen – the mere prospect of Fed cuts not only helped REITs in the US, but even listed REITs in Asia. We are particularly bullish about office-based REITs as return to the office mandates become more widespread.

2. Uranium will be the commodity of the year

In 2025, we expect yellowcake to bounce back from a difficult 2024. It is easy to forget uranium is in a slow recovery from a prolonged bear market. There are several companies recommencing production at mothballed projects. And nuclear energy is being embraced as a solution to help the world decarbonise, but at a more reasonable cost. Peter Dutton’s plan for nuclear reactors is an obvious example, but we would also note that tech giants are looking to invest in nuclear-backed solutions for AI-related energy requirements.

3. ANZ will be the best performing big bank

We feel we had to include at least one prediction about the Big Banks, given how much of the market they make up – by market cap, investor attention and dividend payouts. We won’t make a prediction about the CBA share price because it could go either way. But we’d instead like to tip the best Big 4 Bank of the year: ANZ.

2025 will be a year of CEO transition for the bank. Nuno Matos, the current head of Wealth and Personal Banking at HSBC, will become the bank’s chief executive on July 2, 2025. Matos is a relatively unknown figure in Australia and was a surprise to get the job. We expect him to reap the benefits of 2 things that took such a long time to get off the ground, but finally are taking off: The roll out of ANZ Plus, and integration of Suncorp’s retail operations.

4. Chemist Warehouse will do well…

Chemist Warehouse had long been floated as an IPO candidate but is listing via a reverse listing with Sigma. The deal was announced in December…2023. It has taken nearly all of 2024 for regulators to be satisfied it won’t lessen competition (at least in theory) and allow the deal. Chemist Warehouse has many traits that make it an ideal investment, including having a dominant market position and being in an industry resilient to adverse economic conditions.

5. …and that’ll spur the IPO market.

We wrote only a few days ago about the IPO market in 2025. We listed one of the most important factors as being how the first one or two floats perform. If Chemist Warehouse is popular with investors in its early listed life, we could see interest from companies in pursuing an ASX listing.

What are the Best ASX Stocks to invest in right now?

Check our buy/sell tips