ASX Lithium Stocks Surge as Prices Triple: Is It Too Late to Buy or Just the Beginning?

ASX lithium stocks rally as prices rebound

ASX lithium stocks surged this week, with PLS Group (ASX: PLS) up 8%, Liontown (ASX: LTR) jumping 9%, and Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN) rallying 7%. Spodumene prices have tripled from around US$600 per tonne to above US$2,000, while lithium carbonate hit 180,000 yuan in late January. UBS upgraded its 2026 forecast by 74% to US$3,131 per tonne, while JP Morgan lifted its outlook to US$1,100–1,200. In our view, the question is no longer whether the bear market is over, but whether current prices have already captured the recovery.

What are the Best ASX Lithium Stocks to invest in right now?

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Why This Rally Is Different: Supply Tightening Meets Surging Demand

Supply has genuinely shrunk. CATL suspended its Jianxiawo mine in August 2025, removing roughly 5,000 tonnes of monthly supply, while authorities revoked 27 mining permits in Jiangxi. Then, on February 25, Zimbabwe banned all lithium concentrate exports, removing Africa’s largest producer from the supply chain. Canaccord Genuity estimates the ban removes 7% of the global 2026 supply, and Goldman Sachs says it is unlikely to be lifted soon.

On the demand side, Beijing has committed to doubling EV charging capacity to 180 gigawatts by 2027, and battery storage is emerging as a powerful growth driver alongside EVs. We believe the shift is real, but lithium has a habit of humbling investors.

4 ASX Lithium Stocks Positioned for the Next Leg

PLS Group (ASX: PLS) just approved the restart of its Ngungaju plant, targeting July 2026. An offtake deal with Canmax includes a US$100 million interest-free prepayment, showing strong buyer commitment. At around A$5.25, we believe PLS is the lowest-risk lithium play on the ASX, though a pullback could offer a better entry.

Liontown (ASX: LTR) has surged 279% as Kathleen Valley ramps up. The company transitioned to fully underground mining in December 2025, becoming Australia’s first large-scale underground lithium mine. Unit costs fell 17% to A$910 per dmt in the December quarter. With A$390 million in cash and offtake deals with Tesla, Ford, and LG Energy Solution, visibility is strong. After such a run, consolidation would be healthy before adding.

IGO (ASX: IGO) offers a steadier route through its 24.99% stake in Greenbushes, the world’s lowest-cost hard-rock lithium mine, where EBITDA margins reach 68% even in subdued markets. The new CGP3 plant entered production in December, adding 500,000 tonnes per annum. IGO suits investors who prefer quality over leverage.

Core Lithium (ASX: CXO) is the high-risk play. Finniss was mothballed in early 2024, but the company sold stockpiled spodumene to Glencore at US$2,023 per tonne and raised A$50 million for restart works. A firm restart decision and clear funding are needed first.

The Investor’s Takeaway

We believe the bear market is over, but a straight line higher is unlikely. Lithium carbonate corrected from 180,000 to around 145,000 yuan after the January peak, though Zimbabwe’s ban has reignited momentum. Favour producers with cash flow like PLS and Liontown over restart plays. The key risk is the Chinese supply bouncing back faster than expected. For now, selective positioning in quality producers looks like the smart play.